Saturday brings a Lone Star showdown in the NBA as the Dallas Mavericks visit the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio has surged into the West’s top tier behind Victor Wembanyama and an improved defense, while Dallas has leaned on wunderkind Cooper Flagg to keep games competitive through a ton of roster issues. Before this game begins in San Antonio, continue reading to find my Mavericks vs Spurs prediction in a star-studded Western Conference matchup.
Our Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Pick
Pick: Spurs -9.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
Date & Time: Saturday, February 7, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
These teams are in very different positions in the Western Conference standings this season. The Spurs are second in the West and just beat the first-place Oklahoma City Thunder for the fourth time in five tries. Dallas is outside of the top 10 in the Western Conference standings and will have their hands full in this contest.
Star power: Victor Wembanyama is averaging 24.2 points and 11.1 rebounds with elite rim protection. Cooper Flagg leads Dallas at 20.4 points per game with two-way impact and recent scoring outbursts, as he is the odds-on favorite to win this year's Rookie of the Year award.
Injuries and availability: Dallas has dealt with extended absences, including Dereck Lively II out for the season, P.J. Washington in concussion protocol, and other rotation question marks. Trading away Anthony Davis could make them a healthier basketball team in the long run. San Antonio has navigated occasional nicks but remains comparatively healthier.
Dallas comes into this game on a six-game losing streak, while San Antonio has won three games in a row. If the Mavs want to end both of those streaks with a win here, they need to find a way to get scoring from sources other than Flagg.
Pace and shot profile: Dallas can run in bursts but has been streaky from deep. San Antonio’s offense flows through Wembanyama’s gravity, guards who can get downhill, and outside shooters surrounding those key pieces.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Spurs are 2-0 against the Mavs so far this season, winning each of those first two meetings by double-digits.
Dallas is 23-28 against the spread going into this contest.
San Antonio enters this game with a 27-23-2 record against the spread.
The under is 29-22 in Mavericks games this year.
The under is 32-20 in San Antonio's first 52 games of the campaign.
Mavericks vs Spurs Model Projection
Score Projection: Dallas 104 – San Antonio 116
Win Probability: Dallas 28%, San Antonio 72%
Final Thoughts
San Antonio owns clear edges in length, rim protection, and half-court efficiency, and that combination should allow them to win and cover the spread at Frost Bank Center. Dallas’ path to victory rests on hot perimeter shooting from role players around Cooper Flagg and second-chance points, but their injury list and road splits make that outcome tough to sustain for 48 minutes. I'm going to lay the points with the home team in this one.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
