The Memphis Grizzlies will host the Golden State Warriors in a Western Conference matchup on Wednesday night. With Golden State holding a modest advantage in the standings and Memphis struggling to find consistency, the Warriors are slight favorites on the road in this game. Is that status justified? I answer that question right here, as I make my Warriors vs Grizzlies prediction in the NBA.
Our Warriors vs Grizzlies Pick
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 1.5 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies
Date & Time: Wednesday, February 25, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
Golden State enters this contest dealing with significant absences. Superstar Stephen Curry is sidelined due to ongoing knee issues, and newly acquired big man Kristaps Porzingis won’t make the trip due to illness. Other vets like Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, and Seth Curry are also unavailable, meaning younger players will need to step up.
Memphis is enduring a challenging stretch, having lost six of their last seven games and recently dropping a home contest to Sacramento. A number of key Grizzlies players remain out, including point guard Ja Morant and big man Zach Edey. Memphis’ recent roster turnover and injury list have made it difficult for the club to string together wins at FedExForum.
Golden State is on the second leg of a back-to-back here after losing to the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday.
Key Players
Memphis Grizzlies
Ty Jerome: With Memphis thin in the backcourt and Morant out, Jerome has taken on a larger playmaking role. He scored 19 points and handed out seven assists last time out, showing he can be a dual threat with the ball in his hands.
Javon Small: In the recent loss to Sacramento, Small led Memphis with 21 points and nine assists, indicating his expanded role in Morant’s absence. His offensive aggression will be crucial for Memphis to generate scoring opportunities.
Golden State Warriors
Brandin Podziemski: Emerging as a go-to scorer with Curry out, Podziemski nearly posted a triple-double in a recent win over Denver with 18 points, 15 rebounds, and nine assists. His versatility makes him a central piece of Golden State’s offense.
Moses Moody: Moody led the Warriors in scoring in the Denver game with 23 points and provides reliable three-point shooting that helps offset the absence of more established scorers.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Warriors
Grizzlies
Points per game
115.6
115.5
Points allowed per game
113.9
117.8
Team Field Goal %
46%
46%
Rebounds Per Game
42.5
44.7
Assists Per Game
29.1
28.8
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Golden State is 2-0 against Memphis so far this season.
This is the final regular-season matchup between these teams this season.
The Warriors are 26-32 against the spread going into Wednesday night.
Memphis is 25-31 against the spread heading into this game.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Model Projection
Score Projection: Golden State Warriors 112 – Memphis Grizzlies 113 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Golden State Warriors 50%, Memphis Grizzlies 50% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
The Grizzlies are a disaster right now, but the Warriors aren't exactly a group to believe in right now either. I'll take the points with Memphis, as they could certainly win this game outright on their home floor. However, I don't assign much confidence to this game, given how decimated both teams are by injuries.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
