The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will face off in an NBA Cup group stage game on Friday night. These in-state rivals are both off to strong starts to their respective seasons and will try to get their NBA Cup campaigns off to strong starts with a win here. Before tip-off from San Antonio, continue reading to get my Rockets vs Spurs prediction for tonight's game.
Our Rockets vs Spurs Pick
- Pick: Spurs +3.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
- Date & Time: Friday, November 7, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
- Houston is riding a five-game winning streak and leading the league in scoring at 124.7 points per game. They bring momentum into this game but they will have to prove themselves after building a winning streak against a combination of bad teams and teams that are hamstrung by injuries.
- The Spurs are 5-2 and 3-0 at home so far this season. They have lost two games in a row on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns. San Antonio will try to bounce back on their home floor against an in-state rival.
- Houston enters this game without Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) and Fred VanVleet (out for the season). Steven Adams (hip) is listed as day-to-day. San Antonio will be without Dylan Harper (calf) and De’Aaron Fox (hamstring). Kelly Olynyk and Jeremy Sochan are questionable for this matchup.
- Both of these teams have special players leading them. Victor Wembanyama has been defying the laws of physics and leads the Spurs with 25.6 points per game. Kevin Durant leads the Rockets with 24 points per game, while Alperen Sengun remains a threat at all times for the Rockets offensively.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first time these teams will meet this season. They are scheduled to play four regular-season games against one another.
- Houston is 5-2 against the spread to open the season.
- San Antonio is 3-2-2 against the spread thus far.
- The over is 5-1-1 in the Rockets' first seven games.
- The Spurs have stayed under the total in four of their first seven outings.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Alperen Şengün (Houston) | Over 20.5 Points |
Tari Eason (Houston) | Over 1.5 Threes |
Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio) | Over 5.5 Steals + Blocks |
Rockets vs Spurs Model Projection
Score Projection: Rockets 118 – Spurs 121
Win Probability: Rockets 48%, Spurs 52%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be an incredible basketball game. But I lean toward the Spurs as a home underdog to cover the number and potentially win outright. I'm not fully sold on the Rockets just yet, as they have enjoyed some very fortunate scheduling during their five-game winning streak. They should have a tougher time on the road against the Spurs here.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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