Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Top-Three Texas Teams Tangle
Updated July 9, 2026
The Houston Rockets travel to San Antonio on Sunday night for another chapter in a long-running Texas rivalry. Both teams have enjoyed strong stretches during the 2025 to 2026 season, with both sitting in the top three in the Western Conference standings. But only one of them can come away with a win here. Who will that be? Continue reading to get my Rockets vs Spurs prediction and find out.
Pick: Houston Rockets +5.5
Confidence: 3 out of 5
San Antonio enters this contest playing its best basketball of the season. The Spurs have turned into one of the hottest teams in the league, winning three straight games and nine of their last 10, powered by efficient offense and a defense anchored by franchise centerpiece Victor Wembanyama in the paint. Their recent comeback victory against the Clippers highlighted the team’s confidence and ability to close games late.
Houston, meanwhile, continues to build around a skilled core led by Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. The Rockets bring one of the strongest rebounding groups in the NBA and use that edge to generate extra scoring chances. Their ability to dominate the glass could play a major role against a Spurs team that relies heavily on efficiency and shot-making.
Another angle to watch is the tempo. Houston often thrives in half-court possessions where Sengun can facilitate and Durant can attack mismatches, while San Antonio has excelled when its guards push the pace and create early scoring chances.
San Antonio Spurs
Houston Rockets
Stat | Houston Rockets | San Antonio Spurs |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 114.5 | 118.2 |
Points allowed per game | 109.3 | 111.4 |
Team Field Goal % | 48% | 48% |
Rebounds per game | 48.4 | 46.6 |
Assists per game | 24.7 | 27.1 |
Score Projection: Houston Rockets 114 – San Antonio Spurs 116
Win Probability: Houston Rockets 46%, San Antonio Spurs 54%
San Antonio deserves its favorite status given its impressive record and dominant recent run. The Spurs also benefit from home court, where their offense has produced consistent results. Still, Houston’s rebounding advantage and the scoring ability of Durant and Sengun give the Rockets a clear path to keep this contest close. With the spread sitting around two possessions, the value leans toward Houston to stay within the number as far as I'm concerned.
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