The Indiana Pacers (10-34) head to Boston to face the Celtics (26-16) in an Eastern Conference showdown on Wednesday night at TD Garden in Boston. This game pits a struggling Pacers club ravaged by injuries against a deep Celtics roster fighting for playoff seeding. Boston is a heavy favorite at home, but they have had their share of struggles with the Pacers earlier in the year. Before tip-off from TD Garden, continue reading to find my Pacers vs Celtics prediction right here.
Our Pacers vs Celtics Pick
Pick:
Pacers +10.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
Date & Time: January 21, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
The Celtics enter as double-digit favorites with home court advantage firmly in their favor and a significantly better record in the Eastern Conference. Boston has been dealing with a short injury list but remains dangerous, with All-Star Jaylen Brown probable after a 32-point, 11-rebound performance in his latest outing.
Jayson Tatum remains out as he continues his return from a ruptured Achilles tendon, but Boston’s supporting cast of Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Neemias Queta have stepped up among others.
The Pacers are severely undermanned. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season with an Achilles injury, Obi Toppin is sidelined, and Bennedict Mathurin is also out with a thumb issue, leaving Indiana to lean on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard for production.
Indiana’s offense has struggled, ranking near the bottom of the league in scoring and rebounding while giving up plenty of points defensively. Still, the Pacers have been competitive against the Celtics for the most part this season and will try to push Boston to its limits again on Boston's home floor.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings
The teams have split their season series thus far, with Boston leading 2-1.
Indiana’s lone win was a 98-96 victory, but that contest came when Boston was missing key contributors.
In their lone meeting in Boston this season, the Celtics came back from a double-digit deficit to win by eight points.
ATS and O/U records
Indiana is 22-22 against the spread overall this season and has a strong January ATS record.
Boston is 24-18 ATS this season.
Total trends favor the under in Indiana’s games, as they enter this game 28-16 to the under.
The under is 24-18 in Celtics games so far this year.
Home/road splits
Celtics are significantly better at home, with a 12-7 record.
Pacers are 2-18 away and have struggled away from their home court.
Pacers vs Celtics Model Projection
Score Projection: Pacers 111 – Celtics 120 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Pacers 18%, Celtics 82% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
Considering the disparity in health, talent, and recent performance, Boston should win this contest on their home floor. But I'm taking the points with the Pacers on the road here. While the Pacers are short-handed and struggling, they have given the Celtics some headaches this season and that should continue in a reasonably close game in Boston.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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