The Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns will meet for the second time in the month of January when they play on Sunday night. The Heat are coming off a win on the road just one night earlier, while the Suns return home after an extending road trip. Here, I break down this inter-conference matchup, and you can find my Heat vs Suns prediction right here.
Our Heat vs Suns Pick
Pick: Suns -4.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns
Date & Time: January 25, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
Devin Booker’s ankle: Booker left late in the loss at Atlanta after scoring 31 points. He is officially listed as out for this game, which has impacted the betting line substantially in Miami's favor.
Jalen Green’s hamstring tightened in Atlanta after returning earlier in the week. He is again day-to-day and the Suns could certainly use him with Booker out of action for this game.
Tyler Herro’s rib issue has him out for this entire trip, placing more on-ball responsibility on Davion Mitchell and scoring responsibility on Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo. Mitchell is also listed as questionable for the Heat and they will hope that he is available thanks to his two-way contributions.
Miami’s travel: This is the third road game in four nights across the West Coast. This has been a demanding sequence that can sap any team's energy levels. That is especially true for this game, as the Heat are on the second game of a back-to-back after the Heat put up a huge offensive number against the Utah Jazz on Saturday night.
The Suns come into this game in sixth place in the Western Conference standings, but could drop into the play-in tournament spots with a loss in this game. Miami is in eighth place in the Eastern Conference and a win would move them to within a half-game of the top-six.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Heat won the first matchup between these teams this season by a score of 127-121 in Miami.
Phoenix has a 31-14 record against the spread so far this season, the best ATS record in the NBA this year.
Miami is 26-20 against the spread going into this matchup from Phoenix.
The under is 26-19 in games involving the Suns this year.
The Heat are 24-22 to the over going into Sunday night.
Miami is just 9-15 in their road games so far this season.
Phoenix comes into this game with a 14-5 home record this year.
Heat vs Suns Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami 112 – Phoenix 118
Win Probability: Miami 39%, Phoenix 61%
Final Thoughts
I'm going to lay the points with the Phoenix Suns in this matchup on Sunday night. The scheduling spot is incredibly favorable for the Suns, as they are taking on a Heat team that is on the second leg of a back-to-back, while the Heat have struggled mightily on the road this year. Even with Booker out, I'll gladly take the Suns at a discounted price here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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