On Friday night in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks (23-30) make the trip to face the New Orleans Pelicans (15-41) at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Both teams come into this contest in the middle of disappointing seasons. But one of them has to win this game, and I'll try to determine who that will be as I make my Bucks vs Pelicans prediction right here.
Our Bucks vs Pelicans Pick
Pick: Pelicans -4.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 2/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans
Date & Time: Friday, February 20, 2026, 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
New Orleans enters as a modest favorite on their home floor in a spot where they have posted a surprising 6-2 record when favored this season.
The Bucks have been gaining traction, winning four of their last five games, including their most recent outing at Oklahoma City. But the Bucks are without both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner in this game, which could hold them back on both ends of the floor.
Earlier this month the teams played an overtime classic in Milwaukee, with the Bucks defeating New Orleans 141-137. That offensive explosion shows both teams can score against one another.
Key Players
New Orleans Pelicans
Trey Murphy III – Leads New Orleans with about 22.1 points per game, adding 5.7 rebounds and nearly 4 assists. His scoring and three‑point shooting are central to the Pelicans’ ability to keep pace with any team. Murphy is questionable to play here with a shoulder injury.
Zion Williamson – A focal point in the paint with 23.4 points per game and over 55% field goal shooting, Williamson anchors the Pelicans offense and provides a physical inside presence when he is healthy.
Milwaukee Bucks
Ryan Rollins – A breakout scorer for the Bucks at nearly 17 points per game with 5.5 assists. Rollins’ playmaking helps keep the Milwaukee offense fluid. His contributions will be especially important with Turner and Giannis out.
Bobby Portis – Contributing double‑digit scoring and solid rebounding, Portis remains a dependable second scoring option and a floor spacer with the ability to knock down corner threes.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Milwaukee Bucks
New Orleans Pelicans
Points per Game
111.8
114.6
Points Allowed per Game
115.2
120.4
Team Field Goal %
48%
46%
Rebounds per Game
41.2
43.6
Assists per Game
26.1
25.0
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
In their last matchup earlier this month, the Bucks prevailed 141‑137 in overtime.
New Orleans holds a respectable 30‑25‑1 against the spread this season, while the Bucks’ ATS record is 24‑29.
The Pelicans are 28-28 in the over/under market this season. The under is 32-21 in Bucks games this year.
Bucks vs Pelicans Model Projection
Score Projection: Milwaukee 113 – New Orleans 119 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Milwaukee 44%, New Orleans 56% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
If the Bucks were healthy, they would probably be able to defeat the Pelicans on the road here. But the Pels will have the upper hand in this contest, thanks to the absences of Turner and Antetokounmpo on the Milwaukee side. I'll lay the points with the home favorite, as they at least seem interested in competing in the second half of the season.
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