The New Orleans Pelicans head to Indiana to face the Pacers on Friday night in the NBA. Both teams are enduring difficult seasons, sitting at the bottom of their respective conferences and dealing with significant roster instability. But, according to the rules of the NBA, one of these teams has to get out of Gainbridge Fieldhouse with a win in this contest. Find out who I think that will be below, as I bring you my Pelicans vs Pacers prediction on the court.
New Orleans continues to struggle defensively, allowing more than 122 points per game on the season. Injuries have played a major role, with Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, and Jose Alvarado sidelined. Trey Murphy III has stepped into a larger offensive role, averaging about 22 points per game, and Zion Williamson has contributed roughly 22 points and 5 rebounds when available. But to say that this season has been a disaster for the Pelicans would be an understatement.
Indiana has also been hit hard by injuries, including the season-long absence of Tyrese Haliburton. Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin are unavailable, forcing the Pacers to rely heavily on Pascal Siakam. Siakam leads the team with 23.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. Andrew Nembhard has been a steady secondary option, especially in recent outings with so many other contributors missing for the Pacers.
Both teams are operating with shortened rotations, making bench scoring and late-game execution critical factors. Indiana’s home court provides a small but meaningful boost in this scenario against a Pelicans team that has a dismal 3-15 record on the road this season.
Games like this one are incredibly important, even if they don't seem all that meaningful on the surface. Games like this one are huge when it comes to NBA Draft Lottery positioning later in the year. Neither of these teams are going to see the playoffs this season, but the winners and losers of games like this one can impact the ping pong balls that could impact the future of these franchises and others like them.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Pelicans dominated the earlier meeting this season with a 128-109 win in New Orleans.
The Pelicans are 22-20-1 against the spread this season.
Indiana is 21-20 against the spread going into Friday night.
The over is 23-20 in Pelicans games this year.
The under is 26-15 in Pacers games this season. They have the highest percentage of unders in the NBA this year.
Pelicans vs Pacers Model Projection
Score Projection: Pelicans 118 – Pacers 124 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Pelicans 38%, Pacers 62% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
The Pacers should be able to get the job done on their home floor against the Pelicans tonight. Indiana has played some better basketball of late despite their horrible overall record and that should continue against a Pelicans team that has won just 17% of its road games on the year.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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