New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Pick & Prediction - 1/4/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The New Orleans Pelicans (8-28) make the trip to South Florida on Sunday night to take on the Miami Heat (19-16) at Kaseya Center in Miami. With Miami installed as the favorite in this matchup and New Orleans in the midst of a long losing streak, the Heat will try to hold serve on the second game of a back-to-back. Before tip-off from Miami, you will find my Pelicans vs Heat prediction right here.
Pick: | Heat -8 |
Confidence: | 2/5 |
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The Pelicans enter this game losers of six straight, including a recent 122‑109 defeat at the hands of the Portland Trail Blazers despite 35 points from Zion Williamson. New Orleans has struggled defensively and has frequently been unable to slow opponents in transition.
Miami comes off a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves where they surrendered 125 points, but have overall been solid at home this season with a 12‑6 record in Miami. The Heat’s offense has been productive with contributors like Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell leading the way, while New Orleans has seen inconsistent production beyond Williamson and Trey Murphy III.
Miami’s recent performance against Denver also highlighted their ability to score in bunches when in rhythm, albeit against a team missing Nikola Jokic. Overall, Miami’s depth and recent form make them a deserving favorite in this spot, but they will have to overcome a rest disadvantage here.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Bam Adebayo | Over 9.5 Rebounds |
Norman Powell | Over 24.5 Points |
Zion Williamson | Over 24.5 Points |
Score Projection: Pelicans 112 – Heat 124
Win Probability: Pelicans 24%, Heat 76%
Miami is at a rest disadvantage going into this game. But I think that the Heat will overcome that and win big against a struggling Pelicans squad. I'll lay the points with Miami here, as they should bounce back from their loss to the Wolves against a team with a 2-12 record on the road for the season.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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