The Minnesota Timberwolves open a long stay at Target Center by hosting the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. Minnesota has been strong at home and sits well above .500, while New Orleans arrives with one of the league’s worst road records this season. The Wolves enter this game as heavy favorites, as they look to protect their spot in the top six in the Western Conference. Here, I break down this matchup and bring you my Pelicans vs Timberwolves prediction in the NBA.
Our Pelicans vs Timberwolves Pick
Pick: Minnesota -9.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Date & Time: Friday, February 6, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
Top-end scoring: Anthony Edwards is averaging 29.7 PPG for Minnesota. Trey Murphy III has emerged as a high-volume scorer for New Orleans, while Zion Williamson remains the Pelicans’ primary downhill threat when he is healthy.
Injuries to monitor: Edwards has been listed day-to-day recently, but is off the injury report here. Julius Randle has been on the report with a thumb issue, and is questionable for this matchup. Ayo Dosunmu is questionable for the Wolves after being acquired via trade from the Chicago Bulls. New Orleans has managed without Dejounte Murray, who is out for the season.
Minnesota has huge advantages both offensively and defensively going into this game. The main key for the Wolves here will be maintaining their focus against an inferior opponent. It is easy to take teams like the Pelicans for granted, but Minnesota can't afford to do that if they want to grab a win here.
Home/road divide: Minnesota is 17-8 at home, while New Orleans is 5-21 away from Smoothie King Center entering this game.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Timberwolves are 2-0 against the Pelicans this season.
Minnesota has scored 125+ points in two straight games against the Pels going into this contest.
Minnesota is 23-29 against the spread so far this season.
New Orleans is 28-24-1 against the spread going into this game.
The Timberwolves are 26-26 in the over/under market this year.
The over is 27-26 in Pelicans games entering Friday night.
Pelicans vs Timberwolves Model Projection
Score Projection: New Orleans 108 – Minnesota 123
Win Probability: New Orleans 19%, Minnesota 81%
Final Thoughts
Minnesota’s combination of on-ball creation, rebounding, and home-court advantage should give them the edge here. With New Orleans allowing 120.9 PPG and struggling on the road, the Wolves have a clear path to a double-digit result if their turnover rate stays reasonable. I’m playing Minnesota to win and cover the spread in what should be an interesting contest for a Wolves team undergoing some roster changes.
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