The New Orleans Pelicans will travel to Sacramento to face the Kings on Thursday in a game that shapes up as a mismatch on paper. The Pelicans have shown signs of life down the stretch, posting a 6-4 record over their past 10 games and coming off a win in their last matchup against Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Kings have struggled mightily, sitting at 14-49 on the season and losing eight straight at home. Before these Western Conference teams go at it in California, keep reading to get my Pelicans vs Kings prediction.
Our Pelicans vs Kings Pick
Pick: Pelicans -4
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings
Date & Time: Thursday, March 5, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
The Pelicans hold a psychological edge after a 120-94 victory over the Kings in their first meeting this season.
The Kings are desperate to end an eight-game home losing streak and stop a prolonged slide in the standings.
New Orleans has been rolling against lesser competition recently, using a balanced offensive attack to outscore opponents.
Sacramento’s roster is hit with injuries and absences that have limited their scoring and defensive cohesion. Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis are out for the season, while Keegan Murray is also out, depriving this team of so many important players.
Key Players
New Orleans Pelicans
Trey Murphy III: Leads the Pelicans with around 22.0 points per game and adds 5.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists recently, giving New Orleans consistent scoring and playmaking on offense.
Saddiq Bey: Has been contributing about 21.4 points per game over his last 10 contests, helping stretch the defense with shooting and creating additional scoring opportunities.
Jeremiah Fears: A scoring spark off the bench with recent games of double‑digit points, helping add depth to New Orleans’ offensive attack.
Sacramento Kings
Maxime Raynaud: Averaging roughly 10.7 points and 7.2 rebounds, Raynaud has been a key contributor for a Sacramento team that lacks consistent production elsewhere.
DeMar DeRozan: While not the top scorer on the team, DeRozan’s experience and roughly 14.1 points per game over his last 10 contests provide Sacramento with one of its steadier offensive options.
Russell Westbrook: Adds veteran playmaking for the Kings and averages about 6.3 assists per outing, though overall scoring remains limited.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Pelicans
Kings
Points per game
114.9
110.2
Points allowed per game
120.2
121.1
Team Field Goal %
46%
46%
Rebounds Per Game
43.8
41.6
Assists Per Game
25.2
25.2
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the second meeting between the teams this season, with the Pelicans dominating the first encounter 120-94.
Sacramento is 24-39 against the spread this season, the worst ATS record in the NBA.
New Orleans is 34-28-1 against the spread for the year.
Pelicans vs Kings Model Projection
Score Projection: Pelicans 118 – Kings 107
Win Probability: Pelicans 70%, Kings 30%
Final Thoughts
All signs point to the Pelicans controlling this matchup with their superior offensive balance and recent form. Sacramento’s home struggles and injuries give New Orleans a real advantage in covering as favorites. Expect the Pelicans to clinch another win, and I recommend bettors back them to cover the number on Thursday night.
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