Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Preview & ATS Pick - 1/9/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Oklahoma City Thunder head into Friday’s showdown with the Memphis Grizzlies as road favorites in a game where the injury list is long on both sides. The stars for both teams are set to miss this matchup due to injuries, which will put the spotlight on many players who are not used to having it. Here, I break down this contest in the Western Conference and give you my Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction for Friday night.
Pick: | Grizzlies +4.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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The Thunder have been among the best teams in the NBA this season, posting a 31-7 record that shows they are the defending champions for a reason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the unquestioned leader of their team, capable of dominating any matchup with his scoring and playmaking. He recently delivered a 46-point outing that lifted OKC to a key win, but he is out for this game with an ankle injury. Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Cason Wallace are also out for the Thunder in this contest, which will leave Jalen Williams in charge of carrying the scoring load.
The Grizzlies have been besieged by injuries as well. Star guard Ja Morant has been ruled out of this game due to a calf injury and has missed multiple contests, disrupting Memphis’ offensive rhythm. Several other rotation pieces like John Konchar, Ty Jerome, and Zach Edey remain sidelined as well, leaving Memphis to rely on a patchwork lineup. Thankfully, the defensive assignments for the Grizzlies in this game won't be as tough with all of the injuries OKC is dealing with.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Jaren Jackson Jr. | Over 20.5 Points |
Cam Spencer | Over 2.5 Threes Made |
Score Projection: Oklahoma City Thunder 111 – Memphis Grizzlies 110
Win Probability: Thunder 51%, Grizzlies 49%
Despite the Thunder being the best team in the NBA, I'm going to roll with the Grizzlies as home underdogs in this matchup. OKC is missing so many talented pieces going into this game. And while the Grizzlies are banged up as well, all of the absences for the Thunder should help the Grizz keep this game close enough to cover the spread.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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