Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns sends the series to Arizona with the Thunder holding a commanding 2-0 lead after two convincing wins. Oklahoma City has controlled both ends of the floor, winning Game 1 by 35 points and following it up with a 120-107 victory in Game 2. Now the scene changes as Phoenix hosts its first playoff game in years, looking to slow down a Thunder team that finished the regular season with 64 wins and is the defending NBA champion. Before tip-off from Phoenix, continue reading for my Thunder vs Suns Game 3 prediction.
Thunder vs Suns Game 3 Pick
Pick: Suns +9.5
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
Date & Time: Saturday, April 25, 3:30 PM ET
Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
Broadcast: NBC, Peacock
Key Storylines
The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the series 2-0 after double-digit wins in both games at home to start the series.
Phoenix returns home needing a win to avoid a 3-0 deficit.
Turnovers have been a major issue for the Suns through two games.
Oklahoma City continues to dominate defensively and in transition.
The officiating in this game will be interesting to monitor. Phoenix has been highly critical of the officiating surrounding OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and we could see the Suns get away with some more physical play at home.
Jalen Williams is out for OKC with a hamstring injury, which does hurt them given how important Williams is in providing scoring behind SGA.
Key Players
Phoenix Suns
Devin Booker remains the focal point of the offense, carrying the scoring load and playmaking duties. His ability to create shots will determine whether the Phoenix Suns can keep pace. Booker shot 50% from the field in Game 2.
Dillon Brooks dropped 30 points to lead the Suns in Game 2. If he can avoid foul trouble, he could be a major difference-maker for Phoenix here.
Royce O’Neale has seen increased minutes due to lineup adjustments and adds perimeter defense along with outside shooting. He scored 16 points off the bench for the Suns last time out.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the driving force behind Oklahoma City's success, leading a high-powered offense while consistently getting to the free-throw line. SGA led the Thunder with 37 points in Game 2.
Chet Holmgren anchors the defense and contributes as a versatile scoring threat inside and out.
Cason Wallace was held scoreless in Game 2 for the Thunder. With Jalen Williams out, it will be up to players like Wallace and Isaiah Joe to help fill the void offensively.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Oklahoma City has won the first two games of the series by 35 and 13 points.
OKC is 5-2 against the Suns between the regular season and playoffs this year.
The Suns are 49-37 against the spread this season.
OKC comes into this contest with a 40-44 record against the spread.
Thunder vs Suns Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Thunder 116 - Suns 109
Win Probability: Thunder 72%, Suns 28%
Oklahoma City has been the more complete team through two games, showing efficiency on offense and discipline on defense. Their ability to force turnovers and convert those opportunities into points has been a major difference in the series. Phoenix has struggled to protect the ball and has not consistently matched the Thunder’s pace or shot-making.
Game 3 does offer some hope for the Suns with the shift to their home floor, and there are signs of offensive improvement after lineup changes in Game 2. I do still expect the Thunder to win this game and take a 3-0 series lead. But I think that the Suns will keep the margin inside of single digits and cover the number as an underdog.
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