Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Spurs Look to Avoid 3-1 Deficit In Game 4
Updated July 9, 2026
The Western Conference Finals take center stage at Frost Bank Center on Sunday night with the Oklahoma City Thunder carrying a 2-1 series edge over the San Antonio Spurs. Oklahoma City answered San Antonio’s Game 1 upset by taking the next two contests, including a convincing 123-108 victory on Friday. The Thunder adjusted defensively against Victor Wembanyama, received major scoring support from the bench, and continued to lean on the steady production of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. San Antonio now faces a critical spot at home, where a loss in Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 would leave the Spurs staring at a 3-1 deficit against one of the NBA’s deepest rosters.
Oklahoma City has done an impressive job of slowing down Wembanyama after the opening game of the series. The Thunder have become far more physical around the rim and are forcing San Antonio’s supporting cast to create offense. That adjustment paid off in Game 3, when the Spurs struggled to maintain offensive rhythm in key stretches of the game.
The health of both teams remains one of the biggest factors entering Sunday. Oklahoma City will be without Ajay Mitchell because of a calf injury, while Jalen Williams remains questionable with a hamstring issue. San Antonio expects De’Aaron Fox and rookie guard Dylan Harper to suit up, though both are still dealing with lingering injuries that affected their explosiveness in Game 3.
Bench production has tilted the series in OKC's favor. Oklahoma City dominated reserve scoring in the last outing, outscoring the Spurs bench by a massive margin. Jared McCain provided an unexpected spark for the Thunder, while San Antonio struggled to find consistent offense whenever Wembanyama rested.
San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC has a depth advantage in this series, but injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell could reduce that advantage significantly if both are out of action for this contest. I am going to back the Spurs to win this contest and cover the spread as a slight favorite, as their desperation and a more favorable whistle when it comes to OKC's physicality in the paint should help them to even this series at two games apiece before it goes back to OKC for Game 5.
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