The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to San Antonio on Tuesday to take on the Spurs in a highly anticipated Western Conference matchup. Both clubs have been among the league’s best this season, but the Thunder have set themselves apart by amassing one of the strongest records in the league during their title defense. Can OKC get a win on the second game of a back-to-back here? Continue reading to get my Thunder vs Spurs prediction for Tuesday night.
Our Thunder vs Spurs Pick
Pick: | Spurs +5.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 23, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
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Key Storylines
- The Thunder have compiled a league-leading record this season, coming into this game with a 26-3 record and a balanced attack led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been among the league’s top scorers and facilitators. The defending NBA champions are determined to maintain their position at the summit of the Western Conference. But they will have to overcome the second game of a back-to-back here.
- The Spurs have built momentum with a six-game winning streak (excluding the NBA Cup final) and solid recent performances, including a convincing win over the Washington Wizards. De’Aaron Fox has been a standout, directing the offense efficiently and scoring at a high rate.
- Victor Wembanyama’s availability remains crucial for San Antonio. He is listed as questionable and may play limited minutes as the Spurs carefully manage his ongoing recovery from a left calf issue. When on the floor, he provides unmatched rim protection and scoring versatility that the Spurs will rely on. But his minutes could be restricted and that could negatively impact San Antonio here.
- Both teams are navigating key health considerations. Oklahoma City’s injury list includes players like Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso, who would be huge positives for OKC if they were able to suit up.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- San Antonio won the first meeting between these teams this season in the NBA Cup semifinals.
- OKC is 16-13 against the spread this season.
- San Antonio is 15-12-2 against the spread going into this contest.
- The Spurs have gone over the total in 15 of their first 29 games.
- The Thunder have stayed under the total in 15 of their 29 outings.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Under 31.5 Points |
De’Aaron Fox | Over 18.5 Points |
Thunder vs Spurs Model Projection
Score Projection: Thunder 118 – Spurs 117
Win Probability: Thunder 62%, Spurs 38%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for a very close game between these teams on Tuesday night. The Thunder are a better team than the Spurs, but the Thunder have a rest disadvantage that will be hard for them to navigate. I'll take the points with the Spurs in what should be a close game from San Antonio just a couple of days before the NBA's annual Christmas Day slate.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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