The Oklahoma City Thunder travel north to take on the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night. Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out for this game, preventing us from watching the reigning MVP in his home and native land. But this should still be a good matchup, as the team with the best record in the Western Conference takes on a playoff contender in the Raptors. Before this contest begins, continue reading to get my Thunder vs Raptors prediction.
Our Thunder vs Raptors Pick
Pick: Toronto Raptors -1.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3.5 out of 5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Toronto Raptors
Date & Time: Tuesday, February 24, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
Oklahoma City has been strong on the road and overall this season with a 44-14 record. They beat the Cleveland Cavaliers at home in their last game despite being without SGA and Jalen Williams. But this game is set to be another tough task for the defending champs.
Oklahoma City has been winning consistently and has gone 4-1 straight up in their last five games, while Toronto also comes into this after winning 4 of its last 5. Both teams have shown offensive balance and the ability to close out games, making this a compelling matchup in February’s push for playoff positioning.
The latest head-to-head saw Toronto earn a 103-101 victory on the road earlier this season, with Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes making key plays down the stretch. That win gives the Raptors confidence heading into this rematch.
Key Players
Toronto Raptors
Brandon Ingram: Toronto’s leading scorer at around 22 points per game, bringing mid-range scoring to a Raptors offense that generates looks from multiple spots on the floor.
Immanuel Quickley: A primary perimeter ball-handler and scorer with around 17 points and 6 assists per game, Quickley’s ability to orchestrate transition offense and hit late threes makes him essential for Toronto’s offensive flow.
RJ Barrett: Contributes roughly 18 points per contest with solid rebounding and the ability to get to the rim, providing scoring balance and experience.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren: A versatile forward with about 17+ points and 8+ rebounds per game, Holmgren’s defensive presence, paired with his efficient scoring, makes him a constant threat on both ends. He will be even more important than usual without SGA and J-Dub on the floor.
Isaiah Joe: A key shooter and secondary scoring option around 10.8 points per night, Joe’s perimeter spacing helps stretch defenses and creates driving lanes for Oklahoma City’s core stars.
Stat Comparison
Stat
Thunder
Raptors
Points Per Game
119.5
113.9
Points Allowed Per Game
107.7
111.7
Team Field Goal %
49%
47%
Rebounds Per Game
43.7
43.1
Assists Per Game
25.6
29.3
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Earlier this season, the Raptors earned a close win over the Thunder 103-101, showcasing that Toronto can compete with Oklahoma City in crunch time.
OKC is 29-29 against the spread so far this season.
Toronto holds a 29-28 record against the spread so far this year.
Thunder vs Raptors Model Projection
Score Projection: Oklahoma City Thunder 112 – Toronto Raptors 115 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Oklahoma City Thunder 48%, Toronto Raptors 52% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This showdown between the Thunder and Raptors sets up as a competitive battle between two teams that are playoff-bound. I lean toward the Raptors to get the win in this contest at home, thanks in large part to the fact that the Thunder are missing multiple starters.
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