The Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet in the quarterfinals of the 2025 NBA Cup on Wednesday night at Paycom Center. The Thunder are off to an historic start this NBA season and will try to stay unbeaten at home in this elimination game. Before tip-off from OKC, continue reading to find my breakdown of this contest, including my Suns vs Thunder prediction.
Our Suns vs Thunder Pick
Pick: Suns +15.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date & Time: Wednesday, December 10, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
- The Thunder arrive in the NBA Cup quarterfinals in electric form. They are riding a franchise record-tying 15-game win streak after a 131–101 blowout of the Utah Jazz in their last game. Even without all their usual rotation pieces, the Thunder look locked in. Their offense shot 58% overall and knocked down 21 of 42 three-point tries against Utah, with 10 of 11 players hitting at least one triple.
- The Suns come into this game after upsetting the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night, but inconsistency and injuries loom large. Devin Booker is listed as questionable for this contest, while Jalen Green is out for at least another week. The team is trying to rally without some key contributors, but they have their work cut out for them against the defending champions.
- OKC comes into this game with a record of 11-0 at home this season. One of those 11 home wins came against this same Suns team on November 28. That game was decided by just four points and the Thunder will come into this contest knowing that they can't take this game for granted, even if the Thunder are heavily favored.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The most recent meeting between these clubs came on November 28 in group play of the NBA Cup, when Oklahoma City defeated the Suns 123–119.
- The Suns are 16-8 against the spread so far this season, the highest win percentage against the spread in the NBA.
- OKC is 13-11 against the spread going into this contest.
- The Thunder have gone over the total in 13 of their first 24 games this year.
- The under has cashed in 13 of the Suns' first 24 outings.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 30.5 points |
Chet Holmgren | Over 8.5 rebounds |
Devin Booker | Over 22.5 points |
Suns vs Thunder Model Projection
Score Projection: Suns 105 – Thunder 115
Win Probability: Suns 14%, Thunder 86%
Final Thoughts
The Thunder should control this game with their defense, as they have done all season long. But I'm taking the points with the Suns in this contest. Phoenix has already proven that they can hang with OKC at Paycom Center. And with the pace of this game likely to slow down late given the NBA Cup implications, I think this game will land around 10 points instead of the 15-16 that the point spread is giving us here.
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