San Antonio heads north for a divisional showdown in Dallas in a game that matters for both sides. The Spurs are pushing near the top of the Western Conference standings, while the Mavericks are fighting to steady the ship after a rough stretch and an active trade deadline. Before this Texas two-step takes place in Dallas, you can find my Spurs vs Mavericks prediction right here.
Our Spurs vs Mavericks Pick
Pick: Mavericks +6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 1/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
Date & Time: Thursday, February 5, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
Victor Wembanyama is authoring another elite defensive month and he helped the Spurs to get a double-digit win over a short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder team last night. This will be the second game of a back-to-back for the Spurs, which could cause problems even if they have a talent advantage over the Mavericks.
Cooper Flagg has been great for Dallas, with recent 30-plus nights including 36 against Boston and 34 at Houston. He’s carrying a heavy usage burden while veterans cycle in and out of the lineup. His usage could increase in the short-term after the Mavs made some trade deadline deals, including one that sent Anthony Davis to the Washington Wizards.
Mavericks availability watch: P.J. Washington has been in concussion protocols and missed the Celtics game, while several of the newly-acquired Mavs are questionable after their respective trades, including Khris Middleton. Daniel Gafford has played through an ankle knock. Bettors should keep their eyes peeled for updates throughout Thursday.
The Spurs' health picture is steadier. Stephon Castle has dealt with leg tightness at times, but San Antonio’s core minutes around Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, and key reserves have been largely intact.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings: Spurs dominated the season opener in Dallas, 125-92, behind Wembanyama’s 40 and 15. The clubs will meet again in San Antonio on February 7.
The Spurs are 26-23-2 against the spread going into this matchup.
Dallas is 23-27 against the spread entering Thursday night.
The under is 32-19 in Spurs games this season, the highest under percentage in the NBA.
The under is 29-21 in games involving the Mavs this year.
Spurs vs Mavericks Model Projection
Score Projection: Spurs 118 – Mavericks 113
Win Probability: Spurs 64%, Mavericks 36%
Final Thoughts
This game is going to be incredibly difficult to predict, as the Mavs have a rest advantage, but their roster is all over the place thanks to the trades they made. I think that the Mavs will cover the spread here behind a big game from Flagg. But I don't feel all that confident in either side here given everything going on with both of these teams.
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