The San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets will meet on Wednesday night in their third Texas clash of the season. Both teams got a win over one another earlier this season and they will meet again here in an important battle of top four teams in the Western Conference. Before these star-led rosters go at it in H-Town, you will find my Spurs vs Rockets prediction below.
Our Spurs vs Rockets Pick
Pick: Rockets -2.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
Date & Time: Wednesday, January 28, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Recent meetings: Houston held Victor Wembanyama to 14 points on 5-for-21 shooting and closed with a dominant fourth quarter to win 111-106 on January 20. Before that, the Spurs defeated the Rockets 121-110 in November.
Injury picture: Houston is still without Steven Adams due to a Grade 3 ankle sprain and Fred VanVleet is out for the season with a knee issue. Tari Eason has returned to the rotation for the Rockets. San Antonio has leaned on Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox while getting steady wing minutes from Julian Champagnie and Harrison Barnes. Jeremy Sochan is questionable with a quad issue, but the injury report is not crowded on San Antonio's side.
Star production: Wembanyama is leading the Spurs at 24.2 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. Kevin Durant leads Houston at 26.4 points per game, with Alperen Sengun contributing 9.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists on average.
Styles and pace: San Antonio has run near league average in pace but has been efficient offensively. Houston plays slower, yet sits top-10 in offensive rating and top-10 in points allowed, helped by elite defensive rebounding even with Adams out.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
These teams are 1-1 against each other so far this season.
The home team is 2-0 in the previous meetings between the Spurs and Rockets.
Houston is 21-23 against the spread so far this season.
The Spurs are 23-22-2 against the spread entering Wednesday night.
The under is 23-20-1 in Rockets games this year.
The under is 29-18 in Spurs games this season, the highest percentage of unders in the NBA.
Spurs vs Rockets Model Projection
Score Projection: San Antonio 108 – Houston 112
Win Probability: San Antonio 45%, Houston 55%
Final Thoughts
We should see another closely contested game between these Texas teams. I'm expecting the Rockets to get a win at home after seeing the home team with each of the first two matchups in the season series this year. The Rockets are an impressive 16-3 at home on the year and they should continue to dominate at Toyota Center here, even with Wemby on the floor opposing them tonight.
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