San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Game 5 Could Decide the WCF
Updated July 9, 2026
Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals shifts the series back to Oklahoma City with the series tied 2-2 after the San Antonio Spurs rolled to a 103-82 victory in Game 4. That result changed the tone of the series in a major way. San Antonio slowed the Thunder offense, controlled the paint, and forced Oklahoma City into one of its weakest shooting nights of the postseason. Now the pressure moves to the top-seeded Thunder on their home floor at Paycom Center, while they deal with multiple injuries entering Spurs vs Thunder Game 5.
San Antonio enters Game 5 with growing confidence after dominating the fourth game of the series. The Spurs adjusted defensively by limiting double teams on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and staying attached to Oklahoma City shooters. The result was a Thunder offense that shot poorly from deep and struggled to find rhythm for most of the night.
The health situation for OKC also deserves attention. Oklahoma City continues to deal with injuries in the backcourt rotation, while Jalen Williams remains questionable with a hamstring issue and Ajay Mitchell is listed as out for this game. San Antonio has largely avoided major injury concerns during this series, though De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper have both played through minor issues.
Another major factor is rebounding. The Spurs have consistently created extra opportunities with their size advantage. Victor Wembanyama has controlled the glass throughout the postseason, and Oklahoma City has struggled to keep San Antonio from generating second-chance points around the basket.
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
Past meetings this season
ATS records this season
Oklahoma City deserves respect at home, especially after a poor shooting effort in Game 4. Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to respond with a stronger outing, and the Thunder usually play with more pace and confidence inside Paycom Center. Still, San Antonio has created real problems for Oklahoma City's offense with its size and interior defense.
The spread feels slightly inflated considering how competitive this series has been. Three of the four games have stayed within single digits late into the fourth quarter, and San Antonio owns the rebounding edge that often matters most in playoff basketball. Wembanyama also gives the Spurs a defensive ceiling that few teams can match. I'll take the points with San Antonio in what should be a memorable game from OKC.
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