San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction - 12/13/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will collide in a highly anticipated NBA Cup semifinal on Saturday night in Las Vegas. Oklahoma City arrives with an almost unheard-of 24-1 record this season, enjoying one of the most dominant starts in league history. The Spurs punched their ticket with a high-scoring victory over the Lakers and are set for the impending return of star Victor Wembanyama. Before tip-off in Las Vegas, you can continue reading to get my analysis for this game, including my Spurs vs Thunder prediction.
The Thunder boast a nearly flawless record this season and showed their offensive and defensive prowess in a historic 138-89 victory over the Phoenix Suns in the quarterfinals. They have tied the best start in NBA history with 24 wins and just one loss. Oklahoma City’s gameplan is powered by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who leads the team with elite scoring and playmaking. He is complemented by Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Their efficient shooting and stingy defense make them incredibly tough to beat.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have surged to a 17-7 record despite missing Victor Wembanyama for several games due to a calf injury. San Antonio’s offense has been led by De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle and has produced high-scoring outputs, including their 132-119 victory over the Lakers in the quarterfinals.
The biggest narrative going into this game is the potential return of Wembanyama for San Antonio after he sat out 12 games with a calf strain, with multiple reports indicating he is probable to play but likely under a minutes restriction in the contest. If he suits up, his presence will boost San Antonio’s ceiling offensively and defensively, but there remains uncertainty about his conditioning and ability to impact the game at full strength against elite competition.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 31.5 points |
Victor Wembanyama | Under 17.5 points |
De’Aaron Fox | Over 5.5 assists |
Score Projection: Spurs 112 – Thunder 125
Win Probability: Spurs 28%, Thunder 72%
Oklahoma City is far and away the best team in the NBA this season and it would be a shock if they didn't end up in the NBA Cup final. I'm going to lay the points with the Thunder in this matchup, as they should dominate this game with their elite defense and set up a matchup against either the New York Knicks or Orlando Magic.
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