As the Utah Jazz prepare to visit the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday, both teams have had success against each other at times this year. These two clubs meet for the second time in just days after Dallas dominated the Jazz 144–122 in their last encounter on January 15. But Utah has a couple of wins over the Mavs this season as well. Who will get the win this time around? Continue reading for my Jazz vs Mavericks prediction in the NBA.
Our Jazz vs Mavericks Pick
Pick:
Mavericks -4.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Date & Time: Saturday, January 17, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
In their first meeting this week, the Mavericks exploded for 144 points in a fast-paced outing, led by sharpshooter Klay Thompson with 26 points and six three-pointers. Dallas shot over 56% from the floor and 40% from three-point range in that win. The Jazz struggled defensively throughout, allowing big runs at critical junctures.
Injury reports are something to watch on both sides of this game. The Mavericks have dealt with a growing list of unavailable players, including rookie Cooper Flagg (ankle, doubtful), Anthony Davis (hand, sidelined for weeks), and others listed as day-to-day. Despite that, Dallas still produced a dominant performance in the last meeting against Utah.
Utah’s status is similarly compromised. Leading scorer Lauri Markkanen was unavailable due to illness in the Jan 15 game and remains questionable, while Walker Kessler is dealing with shoulder bursitis and other role players are day-to-day. Brice Sensabaugh has provided an offensive spark, but the Jazz defense remains one of the poorest in the league statistically.
Both franchises are below .500 and outside of the top 10 in the Western Conference standings. If the Mavs are going to make a move toward the postseason at some point, they are going to need to find a way to win games like this one against bad teams, even when shorthanded.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Jazz are 2-1 against the Mavericks so far this season.
The home team is 3-0 in games between these franchises this season.
Dallas is 18-24 against the spread this season.
Utah comes into this game with a 23-18 record against the spread for the year.
The over is 26-15 in Utah's games this year.
Dallas has stayed under the total in 24 of their 42 games.
Jazz vs Mavericks Model Projection
Score Projection: Utah Jazz 118 – Dallas Mavericks 125 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Utah Jazz 38%, Dallas Mavericks 62% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
The home teams have dominated the season series between these teams this season. I expect that to continue here, as the Mavs should be able to get the job done with or without Cooper Flagg on the floor here. Lauri Markkanen being sick won't help the Jazz, nor will their dreadful defense, as the Mavs should get the victory in this matchup.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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