2026 NFL Draft Prop Bets: 3rd Overall Pick, Carnell Tate Draft Position & More
Updated July 9, 2026
The NFL Draft is always an interesting night, as the future of NFL franchises can change dramatically with just one selection. It can also be a great night for NFL bettors, as there are opportunities to wager on everything from who will be drafted in specific spots, to over/unders on draft positioning, and even head-to-head matchups on which players will be drafted before others. Here, you will find my top 2026 NFL Draft prop bets, which include some representation from each of those markets.
Before we get into our NFL betting picks for the draft, let's take a look at the odds to be the first overall pick. This market offers very little suspense. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is listed at -50000, reflecting near certainty that he will be selected first overall. His combination of elite efficiency, championship pedigree, and positional value makes him the obvious choice for a quarterback-needy franchise in the Las Vegas Raiders. There is no realistic competition remaining after other top quarterback prospects either returned to school or failed to match Mendoza's production.
The second overall pick is where the draft begins to open up. The New York Jets currently hold this selection and are widely expected to take the best player available. That choice should come down to Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey and Ohio State edge rusher Arvell Reese. Reese is the favorite over Bailey at bet365. And while Bailey had a dominant season that included 14.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles, Reese's versatility and ability to fit multiple spots in the Jets' defense should make him the pick in this spot.
Prediction: Reese to be selected second overall.
The third pick, currently held by the Arizona Cardinals, is one of the most attractive betting opportunities on the board in this draft. Unlike the first two selections, this slot is wide open, with multiple players in contention depending on the team's preference and potential trade scenarios.
Bailey appears again near the top of this market at, followed closely by Reese. Offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa has also gained traction, along with Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. With a new coaching staff in place, Arizona could prioritize defensive impact, offensive line stability, or try to acquire a cornerstone piece at the running back spot.
To me, the biggest problem with the Cardinals is their ability to protect the quarterback. Arizona gave up a ton of sacks last season and they are going to be making a change at the quarterback position at some point, with Kyler Murray no longer leading their offense. Protecting whoever their starting quarterback is has to be the top priority, and Mauigoa is a nice value play at the third spot with that in mind.
Prediction: Francis Mauigoa to be selected third overall.
Carnell Tate had nine touchdown receptions for Ohio State last season, despite having to share targets with an elite receiver in Jeremiah Smith. While Smith is still in school, Tate is set to be a first-round draft pick this year. As far as where in the first round he will go, I'm inclined to think that Tate will go within the first seven picks in the draft.
There are a pair of potential landing spots that are of interest to me when it comes to Tate. The Tennessee Titans drafted quarterback Cam Ward first overall last season and could really use an upgrade at wide receiver to give Ward the best chance to succeed. And the Cleveland Browns are desperate to make Shedeur Sanders happen, and are also lacking a true number-one option at wideout. I expect one of those teams to grab Tate and for his under to hit here.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (Tate to be drafted 7th or earlier)
A head-to-head draft prop that sticks out to me is whether Rueben Bain Jr. or Mansoor Delane will be drafted first on Thursday. To me, this comes down to positional need for the teams around the fringes of the top 10 in the draft. Bain is an edge rusher, which tends to be a more attractive position than corner, where Delane was a standout at LSU last season. And with the Giants holding a pair of top 10 picks and having just traded Dexter Lawrence away, I think Bain could go 5th or 10th to them before Delane gets selected.
Prediction: Rueben Bain Jr. to be drafted before Mansoor Selane
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