Vegas Golden Knights vs. Anaheim Ducks Game 5 Prediction: Value on VGK at Home
Updated July 9, 2026
Vegas and Anaheim meet in Game 5 on Tuesday night with the series tied 2-2 and momentum up for grabs. The Ducks earned their response in Game 4, but back at T-Mobile Arena, Vegas looks like the slightly better value side thanks to home ice and Carter Hart’s bounce-back potential. The major risk is Mark Stone’s possible absence, which could narrow the edge considerably before puck drop.
Game 4 told a clear story, but not the one the scoreline suggests in isolation. Anaheim deserved to win that game — they were more physical, more determined, and finally cracked the power play after going 0-for-11 to open the series. Carter Hart was not sharp, allowing 4 goals on just 23 shots and surrendering at least 3 he'll want back. That kind of performance from a goaltender in a tight playoff series is typically mean-reversionary. Hart has been genuinely strong in this postseason, and one off-night on 23 shots does not signal a collapse. The market has moved Anaheim to a reasonably respectable +127, which implies roughly 44% probability. That feels slightly generous for a 7th seed returning to a T-Mobile Arena where Vegas has historically dominated. The real pricing question is Mark Stone's status. If he returns — and his availability remains unknown — Vegas gets a transformative lift on special teams, 5-on-5 structure, and locker room composure. If he is out again, the series-level edge tightens further. The uncertainty cuts both ways but leans toward the home team given how Vegas has performed in this building.
In Tuesday night’s other NHL playoff matchup, Buffalo and Montreal continue their Eastern Conference series in Game 4, and we’ve broken down the betting angle in our full Sabres vs. Canadiens prediction.
Key Storylines
This series has followed a precise alternating pattern — whoever lost the previous game has come back and won the next. Neither team has managed back-to-back wins. That rhythm matters here because it puts psychological and narrative pressure on Vegas to respond, and they are doing so on home ice in a game where momentum and composure tend to favor the more experienced side. The Golden Knights have played 116 playoff games since their first season, winning 68 of them. That organizational muscle memory is real and it will be tested in a Game 5 they absolutely need.
What Happened Last Game
Anaheim won Game 4, 4-3, at Honda Center. The Ducks controlled the tone of the game physically, outshooting Vegas 23 to 21, but the more important stat is quality of execution. Anaheim went 2-for-4 on the power play after failing on 11 straight chances earlier in the series — Beckett Sennecke and a Cutter Gauthier-orchestrated second power play goal were the difference-makers. Gauthier recorded 3 assists and was dominant throughout, generating 4 shots and 4 missed shots while winning 2 of 3 faceoffs. Vegas, without Stone, got contributions from Mitch Marner who again posted 3 assists, and Brett Howden scored to make it 2-2 in the second. But Hart surrendered 4 goals on 23 shots — a .826 save percentage — and Anaheim scored in all 3 periods, showing full-game intensity. Vegas had pockets of strong play but not enough sustained control to hold the Ducks back.
What Changed
The clearest change entering Game 5 is the Stone situation. He missed Game 4 with the lower-body injury sustained in Game 3, and his status for Tuesday remains unknown. Coach Tortorella has refused to address injuries publicly, so the first signal will be whether Stone appears in warmups. When Stone plays, Vegas is a structurally different team — more dangerous on the power play, more disciplined killing penalties, and more composed in the defensive zone. Brandon Saad replaced him in Game 4 and was a minus-1 in just over 7 minutes of ice time. That is not a one-for-one swap. Additionally, Anaheim made lineup changes of their own for Game 4, inserting healthy scratches including defenseman Ian Moore, who scored the game-winner. Quenneville's willingness to shake up his lineup mid-series has paid off and that flexibility is something the market should respect.
Recent Form
Within this series, neither team has found a sustained rhythm. Vegas won Games 1 and 3 on home ice and lost Games 2 and 4 on the road. Anaheim won Games 2 and 4 away and lost Games 1 and 3 on the road. The series has been a dead-even contest. Vegas's Game 3 dominance — a 6-2 blowout driven by Marner's natural hat trick — was significant but may have masked Stone's exit late in the first period and the downstream consequences of that loss. Anaheim's response in Game 4 was convincing. Game 5 in Vegas represents a genuine coin-flip series on neutral ground, except it is not neutral — it is T-Mobile Arena, where Vegas has won 7 of their last 9 home playoff games this postseason run.
Goaltending
Carter Hart is expected to start for Vegas and is the more likely of the two goaltenders to bounce back. He has been strong in this postseason overall, elevating his game from the first round, and a 4-goal game on 23 shots is an outlier rather than a trend. Lucas Dostal is expected to continue in goal for Anaheim. He has been serviceable and steady across the series, but he has not been asked to steal a game outright. If Vegas applies consistent pressure at even-strength and cleans up some of the 14 giveaways they had in Game 4, Hart should operate in a more controlled environment than he did Sunday.
Key Skaters
Mitch Marner has been the best individual performer in this series. His 3 assists in Game 4 continued a run of extraordinary production, and his ability to create on the power play and at even-strength is a matchup Anaheim has not fully solved. William Karlsson, returning from a lower-body injury that kept him out for much of the regular season, has looked steadily better as the series has progressed and now carries a plus-3 rating in 4 games. For Anaheim, Cutter Gauthier is the central figure. He has 3 assists and 0 goals against Vegas this series, but his playmaking in Game 4 was elite-level and if he finally finds the net, the Ducks become significantly more dangerous. Beckett Sennecke's power-play goal was his first of the series and he will be one to watch if Vegas takes penalties.
Metric | Anaheim Ducks | Vegas Golden Knights | Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
Last Game 5v5 | 2 even-strength goals, 16 shots | 2 even-strength goals, 13 shots | Even |
Series Chance Quality | Competitive; powered by Gauthier | Marner-led; Eichel line threatening | Slight Vegas Edge |
Special Teams | 2-for-4 PP in Game 4; 2 goals | 1-for-3 PP; Stone absence hurts | Anaheim Edge if Stone Absent |
Goaltending | Dostal steady but unspectacular | Hart off in Game 4; historically strong | Lean Vegas on Regression |
Matchup Edge | Home road splits favor Anaheim on road resilience | Home ice, experience, roster depth | Vegas Edge |
Regular Season Context | Vegas was 8-9-5 without Stone in reg. season | 31-17-12 with Stone; significant gap | Relevant if Stone is Out Again |
The expected game script points toward a tighter, lower-event contest than Game 4. Vegas will look to re-establish 5-on-5 control and limit their giveaways, which ballooned to 14 in Game 4. Tortorella's adjustments between games have been a feature of this series and a bounce-back performance from Hart plus home-crowd energy should compress the game. That makes the under at 6.5 an interesting secondary angle, though the under is supported more by situational data than by any major stylistic shift in the series.
Vegas is listed at -150 and Anaheim at +127, implying roughly 60% and 44% probabilities respectively when accounting for the vig. The sportsbook model has Vegas at approximately 57.5% to win, which aligns closely with the moneyline pricing. This is a tight market and the juice on Vegas is not excessive for a home favorite in a tied playoff series. The primary dislocation, if any exists, is in how the market is pricing Game 4's Hart performance. A 4-goal game on 23 shots in one game is unlikely to represent his true level, and a reversion to his series mean would make Vegas substantially more competitive. Stone's potential return is not fully priced in at -150 — if he suits up, this line would likely open closer to -170. At -150 with even a 50% chance Stone plays, there is marginal value on Vegas.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Moneyline | VGK -150 / ANA +127 |
Total | Over 6.5 +133 | Under 6.5 1-57 |
Puckline | VGK -1.5 +150 | ANA +1.5 -190 |
You can also read our full look at the 2026 Ice Hockey World Championship odds, where we break down the tournament favorites and the betting value behind each contender.
This is not a strong lean. It is a small edge built on three converging factors — Hart regression to form, home-ice advantage backed by meaningful historical data in this specific venue and matchup, and the optionality of Stone's potential return. The -150 line is not generous, but it is not egregious either for a home team that is more experienced and playing in front of their crowd in a decisive game. The biggest risk is Stone's health. If he is a known absence before puck drop, the confidence in this pick drops materially and a pass becomes the correct answer. If he dresses, this becomes a confident play. Monitor warmups.
Final Score Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
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