Chicago Blackhawks vs Minnesota Wild Prediction: Potential sweep?
Updated 09 Jul, 2026
The Blackhawks and Wild go right back at it on March 19 after another one-goal game in this season series, and the setup is familiar by now. Minnesota has already taken 3 games from Chicago, each by a 4 to 3 score, and each one required extra time. That makes this return meeting a good test for bettors. The market sees the Wild as a clear favorite on home ice, yet the series itself keeps producing tight finishes. Minnesota owns the stronger record, the better special teams profile, and the steadier goaltending numbers. Chicago, though, has kept finding enough offense through Connor Bedard and a few young skaters to stay within reach. That gap between full-season strength and series-level competitiveness is where this board gets interesting.
Plenty of picks to chose from with 11 games in the NHL tonight.
Market | Chicago Blackhawks | Minnesota Wild |
|---|---|---|
Spread | +1.5 at -125 | -1.5 at +105 |
Moneyline | +205 | -250 |
Total | Over 6.5 at +114 | Under 6.5 at -135 |
Minnesota enters this game at 39-18-12 and still has plenty to protect in the Central Division race. The Wild had dropped 3 straight before beating Chicago 4 to 3 in overtime on Tuesday, so this is a chance to build off that result instead of letting another rough patch linger. The Wild have been the better team over the long run with 3.28 goals per game, 2.81 goals allowed per game, and a power play running at 25.1%. Chicago sits well behind those numbers at 2.61 goals per game, 3.16 goals allowed, and a 19.2% power play.
The biggest injury angle remains Joel Eriksson Ek. He is still out with a lower-body issue, and that matters because Minnesota loses a center who had 17 goals and 44 points in 62 games. Marcus Foligno also remains on injured reserve, while Bobby Brink is listed day to day. Even with those absences, the Wild still have the high-end punch to drive a game. Kirill Kaprizov leads the club with 80 points on 38 goals and 42 assists in 69 games. Matt Boldy has also reached 38 goals this season, giving Minnesota 2 finishers who can tilt a game in a hurry.
Chicago is still built around Bedard, and he has been active against Minnesota. He carries 64 points with 27 goals and 37 assists, and he has 5 points in 3 games against the Wild this season. Tyler Bertuzzi leads the Blackhawks in goals with 28, which gives Chicago a real finisher on the power play, but the club still struggles to generate steady volume. The Blackhawks average just 24.4 shots per game, last in the league, and that puts a lot of pressure on shot quality and goaltending.
In net, Spencer Knight gives Chicago a chance more often than the team record suggests. He is 19-9-3 with a 2.67 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage. Minnesota has its own edge there with Filip Gustavsson at 25-11-6, a 2.52 goals-against average, a .911 save percentage, and 4 shutouts. In a game where one side should own more of the puck and more of the dangerous looks, Gustavsson is one reason the Wild deserve favorite status.
The head-to-head story is simple. Minnesota has won the first 3 meetings this season and has won 9 of the last 10 against Chicago overall. The Wild have also won 6 straight against the Blackhawks. This current season series has been close on the scoreboard, but the result has stayed the same every time.
From a betting angle, Chicago has been one of the better puck-line teams in the league at 42-25 against the number. Minnesota is 36-33 against the number. That matters because the Blackhawks keep hanging around as an underdog even when they do not finish the job outright. Total results also offer a split picture. Chicago is 28-38-1 to the over on the season, while Minnesota is 38-28-3 to the over. Yet Chicago has gone under in 7 of its last 8 road games, which fits a lower-event profile away from home.
Home and road splits also lean Minnesota. The Wild are 19-9-8 at home, while Chicago is 12-15-6 on the road. Even so, the recent series results tell bettors to be careful with a heavy favorite laying 1.5 goals. Minnesota won the 3 earlier meetings by a single goal each time, and all 3 needed overtime or a shootout. That makes the Blackhawks puck line more appealing than the raw standings might suggest.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Connor Bedard | Over 3.5 shots on goal |
Kirill Kaprizov | Over 0.5 goals |
Filip Gustavsson | Over 24.5 saves |
Bedard is the clearest Chicago prop target because so much of the offense flows through him. He has produced against Minnesota this season, and if the Blackhawks are chasing the game, his shot count usually climbs with it. Kaprizov is the natural Wild look because he leads the team in points and goals and remains the focal point of the top unit and power play. Gustavsson also stands out because Chicago does not drive huge shot volume overall, but Bedard and Bertuzzi can still force enough work for a modest save number to come into range.
ATS PRO
This is one of those spots where the moneyline is likely too expensive for many bettors, so the real question is whether Minnesota can finally beat Chicago by more than 1 goal. I think the answer is yes. The Wild bring the better top-end finishers, the stronger team profile, the stronger home record, and the better special teams setup. They also just saw Chicago 2 nights ago, so there is little mystery left in this spot. The Eriksson Ek absence lowers Minnesota a bit in the middle of the ice, but the Wild still have enough firepower with Kaprizov, Boldy, Zuccarello, Tarasenko, and a defense group that can join the attack.
Chicago has been plucky in this series, and that is why the confidence rating stays in the middle range instead of climbing higher. Bedard can create offense from very little, Knight is capable of a strong road performance, and the Blackhawks have covered plenty of puck lines this season. Still, the bigger sample matters more here. Minnesota scores more, defends better, owns the better goaltending baseline, and has every reason to press for 2 points on home ice. My lean is that the Wild control enough of the game to get home by 2, with an empty-net goal being very much in play late.
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