Avalanche vs Penguins Prediction: Can Pittsburgh Repeat the Upset
Updated July 9, 2026
Colorado travels to Pittsburgh with a clear statistical edge, yet this game still presents an interesting betting angle after the Penguins delivered a 7-2 win in the previous meeting earlier this month. The Avalanche remain one of the strongest road teams in the NHL and continue to get elite production from Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has shown flashes of high-end scoring behind Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust, though the results have been less steady. With Colorado holding advantages in goal prevention, shot volume, and top-end consistency, bettors are weighing whether the Avalanche can assert control or if Pittsburgh’s offensive bursts can create another upset.
Prediction: Over 5.5
Both teams score a lot of goals and Colorado is 1st in the NHL with their 3.68 goals produced per game. Pittsburgh is currently at 7th with their 3.41 goals produced per game. But since we are looking at the Over, we must note that the Avs are currently 1st in Goals Against with their 2.45 and Penguins sits at 12th in the NHL with their 2.99 GA.
Several other picks and games to choose from in tonight's NHL.
Recent form
Colorado has remained solid over its recent stretch, going 2-2-1 in its last 5 games while picking up wins against Washington and Chicago. Even with a lopsided loss to Pittsburgh earlier in March, the Avalanche have kept a strong overall pace and continue to rank among the league’s best in goal differential. Entering this game, they have 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. Meanwhile Pittsburgh are looking at 4-3-3 in their last 10. However this is a bit deceiving since 3 of those games are against Carolina Hurricanes, with a loss, one OT loss and another SO loss. Some would call it inconsistency but they've had a tough schedule with Carolina x3, Colorado, Vegas, Boston, Utah and Buffalo - teams that are getting ready for the playoffs and not holiday.
Goaltending
The projected goaltending matchup leans toward Colorado. Scott Wedgewood has been excellent this season with a 25-5-6 record, a 2.19 goals against average, and a .916 save percentage. His ability to limit second chances and control rebounds has given Colorado stability on most nights. Pittsburgh have been rotating and can start both Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs. Skinner with 20-14-9, 2.88 GAA and .889% compared to Silovs with 16-9-8, 2.92 GAA and .894%.
Key skaters
Colorado’s offense continues to run through Nathan MacKinnon, who has recorded 45 goals and 110 points in 65 games while leading the team in shots. His pace and playmaking remain difficult for any defense to contain. Martin Necas has added depth scoring with 32 goals and 86 points, giving Colorado another high-impact forward. On the blue line, Cale Makar has contributed 20 goals and 70 points, driving both transition play and power-play production.
Pittsburgh counters with Sidney Crosby, who has tallied 28 goals and 63 points in 59 games and remains the focal point of the offense. During Crosby's injury and Malkin suspended earlier this month, other Penguins had to step up, such as Bryan Rust who's got 26 goals and 57 points, providing consistent scoring support, while Erik Karlsson has 52 points and continues to generate offense from the back end. While Pittsburgh’s top group is productive, Colorado’s combination of elite scoring and defensive structure gives it a more complete profile.
Colorado has been dominant on the road with a 23-7-5 record, making it one of the most reliable away teams in the league. Pittsburgh has been respectable at home at 17-10-8 but has not matched Colorado’s consistency. The Avalanche also hold the edge in goal prevention, allowing only 2.45 goals per game compared to Pittsburgh’s 2.99.
From a betting perspective, the puckline offers some intrigue. Pittsburgh has been a stronger cover team in many spots, especially as an underdog, while Colorado has been more dependable on the moneyline. The total is set at 6.5, which sits near both teams’ combined scoring averages. Colorado games have leaned slightly lower scoring due to their defensive structure, while Pittsburgh’s games have produced more variability.
Head-to-head results have been evenly split over recent meetings, though Pittsburgh’s 7-2 win on March 16 stands out as the most recent result. Bettors should weigh that outcome against Colorado’s stronger full-season performance rather than treating it as the baseline expectation.
This is an exciting game and Colorado enters as favorites. Colorado holds the key advantages entering this game. The Avalanche generate more shots, defend more effectively, and receive steadier goaltending. MacKinnon remains the most impactful player on the ice, and Makar continues to influence play in all zones. These factors combine to give Colorado a higher floor, which is critical for bettors looking at a road favorite. But Pittsburgh is a tough team to beat, and this game might be tighter than expected, hence the conservative Over at 5.5
Pittsburgh’s path to an upset relies on capitalizing on scoring chances and getting a strong performance from Skinner. The Penguins have already shown they can break through against Colorado, but replicating that level of finishing is difficult. Over a larger sample, Colorado’s structure and depth make them the more reliable side. A 4-2 outcome aligns with both teams’ statistical profiles, supporting a play on the Avalanche moneyline as another strong option on the board.
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