Italy vs Sweden Olympic Hockey Prediction & Preview - 2/11/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic men’s hockey tournament begins on Wednesday and one of the first games on the slate is Italy vs Sweden. This contest pits the hosts against one of the leading contenders for a medal with Sweden entering as an overwhelming favorite according to current betting odds. Sweden’s roster is stacked with NHL talent and high-level international scorers, while Italy’s squad is composed mostly of players from European professional leagues and will be looking to compete with an elite opponent. Before this game begins, keep reading for my Italy vs Sweden prediction on the ice.
Pick: Over 6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Swedish goaltending is expected to be a strength with reliable netminders who have NHL experience, including New Jersey Devil Jacob Markstom and a pair of Minnesota Wild goalies. Their stability in the crease will be vital in keeping Italy’s limited attack at bay while giving Sweden confidence to take offensive risks. Italy’s goaltending situation lacks an NHL-level starter, and while their netminder can make timely saves, the anticipated volume and quality of shots from Sweden could create significant pressure throughout the game.
Sweden’s roster is loaded, with players like William Nylander and Mika Zibanejad leading them into the Milano-Cortina games. Their top lines are full of players with NHL scoring experience and international success, making them difficult for Italy’s defenders to contain. Italy’s key skaters include veterans from European leagues and a few players who have seen limited North American professional experience, but they don't have a single player who is currently in the NHL and that is a problem.
One thing that Italy does have working for it is home-ice advantage throughout this tournament. That might not be enough to help them overcome the huge talent gap between themselves and teams like Sweden. But if the Italian team can feed off the energy of their home crowd, it is at least possible that they can compete early in this game and stay in a position to steal this matchup down the stretch.
Score Projection: Sweden 7 – Italy 1 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Sweden 97%, Italy 3% ATS PRO
This contest in the preliminary round is likely to showcase a stark contrast in talent level. Sweden enters with a roster stacked with high-end talent capable of dominating at both ends of the ice, and Italy will be tested early in front of a home crowd. I am not sure that anyone outside of the United States and Canada can beat this Sweden team. I am expecting Sweden to win big and for the over to hit in this contest, with Sweden doing the vast majority of the game's scoring.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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