Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Game 5 Prediction: Backing the Habs at the Right Price
Updated July 9, 2026
Game 4 was decided by special teams, not by either team genuinely outplaying the other. Buffalo scored 2 of their 3 goals on the power play, converting at 50% across 4 opportunities — a rate that has no business repeating in Game 5. At 5-on-5, both teams generated 16 shots and scored once each. Montreal outshot Buffalo 30 to 22 overall. Zach Benson's third-period power-play winner was the entire margin. The scoreline overstates how much Buffalo dominated, and the market should not be pricing this as a team that has reasserted control of the series.
The value case for Montreal is not about a clear goaltending edge — Luukkonen was genuinely solid in Game 4, stopping 28 of 30 shots in a road game at Bell Centre. It is thinner than that. This series is a true coin flip, both teams are 1-1 at home and 1-1 on the road, and Montreal's most correctable problem from Game 4 — their penalty discipline — is the most likely thing to improve in Game 5. Getting the Canadiens at a price longer than +110 in a matchup they have a realistic 48 to 50% chance of winning is where the marginal edge lives.
On Thursday night, Vegas and Anaheim meet again for Game 6, with the Golden Knights holding a 3-2 series lead.
Goaltending is harder to separate in this series than it first appears. Jakub Dobes has been excellent throughout the postseason, carrying a .918 save percentage in the playoffs and posting a .947 mark across Games 2 and 3 of this round. But Luukkonen was legitimately good in his only start — 28 saves on 30 shots on the road at Bell Centre is a strong performance by any measure. His regular season numbers are also solid. The honest read is that Dobes has the better track record and the larger sample of evidence, but Luukkonen showed nothing in Game 4 to suggest he will crack under pressure at home in Game 5.
The clearest edge Montreal carries into Game 5 is discipline, or more precisely, the expectation that their discipline improves. They handed Buffalo 7 power-play opportunities in Game 4 by taking 4 penalties, and that directly decided the game. Montreal is capable of playing a far cleaner road game — Games 2 and 3 demonstrated their structural control when they are not gifting the opposition the man advantage. If the Canadiens reduce their penalty count in Game 5, Luukkonen faces a heavier even-strength workload without the buffer of power-play chances keeping Buffalo's offense artificially inflated.
Buffalo's depth is also worth noting. Noah Ostlund is confirmed out and Sam Carrick's availability is uncertain, which limits their ability to roll four lines with consistent pressure. Montreal's offensive depth has been genuine across this playoff run, with scoring spread across the lineup rather than concentrated on one line. A tighter, lower-penalty game suits the Canadiens' structure and creates problems for a Sabres team that has leaned heavily on special teams to generate their two wins in this series.
Check out our full breakdown of the favorites to win the 2026 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship.
The series win probability model places Buffalo at 52.2% and Montreal at 47.8%, implying a fair Montreal price in the +108 to +115 range. The bet only makes sense if the market opens Montreal at +110 or longer. At that price, you are being compensated for the road disadvantage on a team whose underlying performance in this series does not justify a larger gap than that. If Montreal opens at +100 or shorter, the value disappears and this becomes a pass.
The market is not making a significant error here. Buffalo's home advantage and Luukkonen's strong Game 4 both support a mild favorite price for the Sabres. The case for Montreal is purely about price — not about a team that has clearly outplayed their opponent. That distinction matters when sizing the bet.
Moneyline | MTL -104 | BUF -115 |
Total | Over 5.5 -148 | Under 5.5 +120 |
Puckline | MTL +1.5 -265 | BUF -1.5 -+205 |
Montreal is not the better team in any obvious way right now, but they are not meaningfully worse either, and a near-even series should not be pricing the road team much longer than +110 to +115.
The bet is on discipline correction and marginal value, not on a clear matchup edge.
Play it small, only at +110 or better, and accept that one more undisciplined period from the Canadiens makes this a losing ticket regardless of anything else.
Final Score Prediction: Montreal 3, Buffalo 2
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