New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction - 11/12/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The New York Rangers will clash with the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday night. Both squads are hovering around the .500 mark and this game presents a key opportunity for one to give themselves a huge lift in the Eastern Conference standings. With two elite goaltenders leading their respective teams, this game could be a low-scoring affair. Before it begins, you can get my Rangers vs Lightning prediction below.
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals
Confidence: ★★★★☆
The Rangers come into this game with an 8‑7‑2 record, while the Lightning stand at 8‑5‑2. The road record for New York is considerably stronger than its home record, yet the Rangers have struggled historically when travelling to Tampa. The Rangers are 1‑6 straight up in their last 7 road games against Tampa Bay. Tampa has won two games in a row going into this contest. They most recently defeated the Washington Capitals on Saturday and will be well rested for this game.
The Tampa Bay crease is guarded by the reliable Andrei Vasilevskiy. He enters with a 2.64 goals‑against average and a .908 save percentage. The Rangers’ starter is Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin carries a 2.46 GAA and .909 save percentage through his 13 starts. Backup Jonathan Quick has a 1.26 GAA and .950 save percentage as an excellent insurance policy for Shesterkin this year.
Tampa Bay’s top skaters include Nikita Kucherov (7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points), Jake Guentzel (6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points), and Brandon Hagel (7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points). Defenseman Victor Hedman is contributing 12 assists and stabilizing the back end.
New York's offense has been anemic this season. They have scored a total of 41 goals (2.4 per game) and rank 28th in the league in scoring. Their defense is solid , with 43 goals allowed (2.5 per game, seventh in the league). Key contributors for New York include Adam Fox (3 goals, 10 assists, 13 points) and Artemi Panarin (5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points).
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Nikita Kucherov | Over 1.5 points |
Artemi Panarin | Over 0.5 goals |
Brandon Hagel | Over 0.5 goals |
Score Projection: Rangers 2 – Lightning 3
Win Probability: Rangers 38% | Lightning 62%
Tampa should win this game on home ice against a mediocre Rangers team. But I think that the best bet for this game is for the under to cash at 5.5 goals. Both of these teams have very good goaltenders who can cover up the mistakes of the defenders in front of them. Expect both goalies to have good games and for this game to stay under its total in Tampa.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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