New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction - 10/16/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The New York Rangers will visit the Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL on Thursday night. New York is one of the few teams that will be happy to be on the road given what their home/road splits have looked like early in the season. But they face a tough task North of the border against a Leafs team that is off to a strong start at home. Here, you will find everything you need to know about this matchup, along with my Rangers vs Maple Leafs prediction.
The Rangers have endured a nightmare stretch at home, becoming the first NHL team ever to start a season by failing to score a goal in their first three home games. They lost 2-0 to Edmonton in their most recent outing and lost 1-0 to the Washington Capitals the game before that. Their road numbers have been far better, having outscored opponents 10-1 across two away games.
Toronto blew past Nashville 7–4 in its last game. Auston Matthews recorded two goals, with William Nylander and Matthew Knies making major contributions. Toronto is 2-1 at home so far this season and will try to stay hot on home ice here.
New York is expected to rely on Igor Shesterkin, who has been stellar to open the season. Shesterkin has a GAA of 0.76 through his first four games this season. That elite level is something the Rangers hope will compensate for their offensive woes.
Toronto is likely to turn to Anthony Stolarz at home. His track record against the Rangers has been decent, though not dominant. Stolarz enters this game with a 3.05 GAA and will attempt to get that number down by playing well here.
The Rangers have scored 10 goals through five games and three of those have come from Adam Fox. Fox leads the Rangers with four points and is one of the few reliable playmakers the team has had early on. The Leafs’ offensive core is humming early on. Matthews, Nylander, and John Tavares are leading a balanced attack. Nylander leads the way with seven points, but several Leafs skaters can hurt their opposition at a moment's notice.
Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
Auston Matthews (TOR) | Goals | Over 0.5 |
William Nylander (TOR) | Assists | Over 0.5 |
Igor Shesterkin (NYR) | Saves | Over 28.5 |
Score Projection: Rangers 2 – Maple Leafs 4
Win Probability: Rangers 35%, Maple Leafs 65%
The Rangers have been better on the road than they have been at home. But I still don't think that being on the road in this game will serve them well. Toronto's superior consistency on offense will help them to get a win in this contest. I'll take the Leafs to win on the moneyline in this intriguing Eastern Conference matchup.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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