San Jose Sharks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks - 1/20/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The San Jose Sharks continue their trip in Florida on Tuesday to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning are carrying one of the strongest records in the league and are firmly in the race for top positioning in the Eastern Conference, while the Sharks have surged into playoff contention behind some high-end scoring from their young core. Here, I break down this contest on the ice and give you my Sharks vs Lightning prediction in the NHL.
Pick: | Lightning -1.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
The Lightning continue to play consistent hockey, riding a long point streak and picking up key wins against the Dallas Stars and Pittsburgh Penguins. Most recently, Tampa Bay extended its point streak to 13 games with a 4-1 road victory over the Stars, getting balanced scoring and solid goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy. This run underlines Tampa Bay’s ability to string results together despite occasional slip-ups, including a shootout loss to the St. Louis Blues that snapped an 11-game winning streak.
San Jose has shown flashes of offensive firepower with recent wins in their last five games, including a win yesterday against the Florida Panthers. But defensive issues remain a concern as they have allowed a high volume of shots and goals against this season. The Sharks’ offense has been aided by standout performances from Macklin Celebrini and others, but inconsistency in goal remains an issue.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is a key factor for Tampa Bay, heading into this game with a rich history of success against the Sharks, including a strong career record and excellent save percentages in past meetings. His experience and recent form give the Lightning an edge in net against a Sharks attack that can be explosive but also susceptible to defensive breakdowns.
For San Jose, the goaltending decision will come down to Alex Nedeljkovic or Yaroslav Askarov, both of whom have shown moments of brilliance but have struggled to consistently stem the tide against top-tier offenses. The Sharks are playing for the second straight day, which could cause them problems on defense.
For the Sharks, Macklin Celebrini continues to lead the offense and is their most reliable point producer. His ability to generate scoring chances makes him a key player for San Jose’s chances of success. Pavol Regenda and Zack Ostapchuk have also contributed important goals recently. The Lightning feature a deep offensive group with Nikita Kucherov leading the way in both goals and assists. Additional scoring support comes from players like Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, and Dominic James, making Tampa Bay’s scoring attack difficult to contain.
Score Projection: Sharks 2 – Lightning 4 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Sharks 29%, Lightning 71% ATS PRO
Tampa Bay enters this contest with clear statistical and form advantages, particularly in the goaltending department. San Jose can keep things competitive with its high-octane offensive players, but it's too much to expect San Jose to perform on the second game of a back-to-back here. I'll lay the puckline with the Lightning in this inter-conference matchup in Tampa.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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