Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Pick & Prediction - 12/27/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Florida Panthers will host the Tampa Bay Lightning in an in-state rivalry matchup from Amerant Bank Arena on Saturday night. Both teams are playing well of late, with the Lightning winning two straight games and the Panthers winning four of their last five. Before the puck is dropped in the Sunshine State, you will find my Lightning vs Panthers prediction right here.
Pick: | Lightning Moneyline |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
Add ATS as a Preferred Source on Google
Florida arrives enjoying a strong stretch, having won eight of its last ten games and most recently posting a 5-2 comeback victory over the Carolina Hurricanes with Sam Reinhart dishing three assists in that effort. Sergei Bobrovsky earned his 16th win of the season in that outing and has been a backbone for the Panthers.
Tampa Bay is coming off a solid 4-1 win over the St. Louis Blues, paced by three points from Darren Raddysh and consistent goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, the Lightning’s recent form sits closer to even with a roughly .500 record over the last ten contests, making consistency a question in this spot.
Sergei Bobrovsky’s veteran presence between the pipes continues to be a stabilizing force for Florida. He’s tied for the league lead in wins and has Florida comfortable relying on his experience late in games. Vasilevskiy remains Tampa Bay’s anchor in net, posting a 2.32 GAA and a .915 save percentage for the season.
Florida’s attack is highlighted by winger Brad Marchand, who leads the Panthers in both goals and assists and enters tonight with a multi-game point streak. Sam Reinhart’s recent playmaking and scoring further solidify Florida’s forward depth. On the Tampa side, Nikita Kucherov remains Tampa Bay’s offensive leader, racking up 45 points this year. Jake Guentzel has heated up as of late with a strong points streak as well. Tampa will need contributions from its top line to keep pace with Florida’s scoring depth.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Sam Reinhart | To Score |
Jake Guentzel | To Score |
Nikita Kucherov | To Score |
Score Projection: Panthers 2 – Lightning 3
Win Probability: Panthers 44%, Lightning 56%
I'm going to take the Lightning to win this contest on the road against their in-state rivals. The Lightning have a much better goal differential than the Panthers despite the teams being so close in the Atlantic Division standings. I'll go with the Lightning to win in a pick 'em game on Saturday night.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
