Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction: Will Game 4 Feature Another Overtime?
Updated July 9, 2026
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens will face off in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series. Through three games, each contest has required overtime, and Montreal now holds a 2-1 edge after a 3-2 victory in Game 3. With the Canadiens aiming to take a commanding lead on home ice and the Lightning trying to even things before heading back to Florida, Lightning vs Canadiens Game 4 is a huge one for the outcome of this series.
Montreal enters Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead after winning Game 1 and Game 3 in overtime. The Canadiens have also taken four of the last five meetings against Tampa Bay, showing a clear edge in this matchup recently. Tampa Bay, despite a strong regular season record of 50-26-6, has struggled down the stretch, with just three wins since early April. Montreal, meanwhile, continues to thrive in tight games and has leaned on timely scoring and opportunistic play.
This matchup still leans toward Tampa Bay in net on paper, with Andrei Vasilevskiy posting a .912 save percentage during the season. However, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes has been more than steady, especially in pressure moments. He turned aside 15 of 17 shots in Game 3 and has now backstopped the Canadiens through three straight overtime contests. While Vasilevskiy remains the more proven option, Dobes has held his own and benefited from strong defensive support late in games.
Tampa Bay continues to rely heavily on Nikita Kucherov, who led the team with 130 points during the regular season, along with Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel. Hagel has scored in three straight games, providing consistent offense in this series.
On the Montreal side, Nick Suzuki drives the attack with 101 points, while Cole Caufield brings elite finishing ability with 51 goals. Both have yet to score a goal in this series, but they have 3 assists each. The emergence of players such as Kirby Dach and Alexandre Texier has been a difference-maker, especially in Game 3 where both recorded multi-point performances.
This series has been defined by razor-thin margins, and Game 4 is unlikely to be any different. Tampa Bay still carries the higher-end talent and a slight edge in net, but Montreal has consistently found ways to generate high-quality chances and capitalize in key moments. The Canadiens also hold a clear situational advantage, playing at home where they have thrived in the underdog role.
With Montreal riding confidence from two overtime wins and continuing to outperform expectations, backing the Canadiens to take a 3-1 series lead is the most logical play to me. I'll take the Habs to win 3-2 in this contest, with another overtime finish being entirely possible.
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