Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction - 12/8/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Tampa Bay Lightning hit the road to face the Toronto Maple Leafs in a key Atlantic Division game on Monday night. The Lightning are atop the Atlantic Division standings but have been struggling of late. Toronto will try to take advantage of that to move closer to the top of the division. Before the action begins on the ice in Toronto, keep reading to get my Lightning vs Maple Leafs prediction.
Tampa Bay arrives having lost three straight games, including a 2–0 shutout loss to the New York Islanders in their last game. Over those three games, the Lightning have managed just four total goals. Their offense, typically among the league’s better scoring units, has sputtered and will try to rebound in this contest. They still average 3.14 goals per game on the season, but their recent issues with offensive execution are concerning.
Toronto had a three-game winning streak snapped in their last game. Toronto lost 2-1 in a shootout against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday. The Leafs are in sixth place in the Atlantic Division, but could move up in a hurry if they can pick up a victory in a game like this one.
The goaltending situation may well decide this game. Tampa Bay’s starter Andrei Vasilevskiy is listed as day-to-day, which raises uncertainty for the Bolts. Instead, we could see Jonas Johansson in net for the visitors. Toronto is also dealing with upheaval in net. Starter Joseph Woll is out with a lower-body injury. The team recalled Artur Akhtyamov from the AHL, and the expectation is that Dennis Hildeby will get the nod here. Hildeby recently made 33 saves in relief, but questions remain about his consistency in a high-stakes game like this one.
Toronto’s offensive leaders include William Nylander, who has 11 goals and 21 assists, as well as Auston Matthews. Others stepping up will be key, as we saw in a recent multi-point night from Bobby McMann. Meanwhile, Tampa relies heavily on weapons such as Brandon Hagel, who leads the club in goals with 17. They also depend on Nikita Kucherov, the creative engine on the right wing who has 22 assists on the year.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
William Nylander (TOR) | Over 0.5 Points |
Auston Matthews (TOR) | Over 0.5 Goals |
Brandon Hagel (TBL) | Over 0.5 Goals |
Nikita Kucherov (TBL) | Over 0.5 Assists |
Score Projection: Tampa Bay Lightning 3 – Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Win Probability: Tampa Bay Lightning 38%, Toronto Maple Leafs 62%
The goaltending situation on both sides of this game could get ugly. I don't mind the idea of playing the over in this contest. But my best bet is for the Leafs to win as a home underdog. The Lightning are struggling mightily of late and that should continue against an explosive Toronto team tonight. I'll go with the Leafs on the moneyline at home.
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