Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction - 1/3/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Toronto Maple Leafs travel to UBS Arena on Saturday night to take on the New York Islanders in an NHL clash that is of vital importance for both of these teams. Both teams enter this game in postseason contention near the midway point of the season. Oddsmakers have set this game at around a pick 'em, with a competitive contest being expected on Long Island. Before the puck is dropped, you will find my Maple Leafs vs Islanders prediction here.
Pick: | Islanders Moneyline |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Toronto has rallied to win four of its last five games, including a wild 6-5 comeback victory over the Winnipeg Jets, where Auston Matthews scored a hat trick and contributed an assist. That effort not only lifted the Leafs but also signaled that their offensive core is clicking around the midway point of the season. Prior to that, they earned a 4-0 shutout over the New Jersey Devils, showcasing how they can play both ends of the ice effectively when locked in.
New York enters this contest off a 7-2 loss to the Utah Mammoth, a game that highlighted continued offensive struggles, as the Isles have managed two goals or fewer in four of their last five outings. While they have outscored some opponents this season, the Isles' offensive production has been inconsistent and is further complicated by key absences to players like Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri.
For the Islanders, veteran netminder Ilya Sorokin has been activated from injured reserve and is likely slotted as the backup with David Rittich expected to start. Rittich has a 2.46 GAA this season and is a solid choice while Sorokin works his way back from injury. The Maple Leafs will counter with Joseph Woll, who has delivered strong performances for the most part this season. His 2.77 GAA should help keep the Leafs competitive on the road in this contest.
Auston Matthews leads Toronto’s offense and is approaching a club record in career goals, riding a multi-game point streak into this game. William Nylander’s status remains day-to-day, and if he plays, his presence could further help Toronto.
New York will miss Bo Horvat, who leads the Islanders in goals and points and is sidelined for at least a week due to a lower-body injury. The absence of Horvat removes a top offensive catalyst and creates added pressure on Mathew Barzal and Anders Lee to generate offense.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Auston Matthews | Over 0.5 Points |
Mathew Barzal | Over 0.5 Points |
Score Projection: Maple Leafs 2 – Islanders 3
Win Probability: Maple Leafs 42%, Islanders 58%
I am going to take the Islanders to win at home in a pick 'em game on Saturday night. The Leafs come into this game with a 5-10-1 record on the road and their struggles away from home should continue in this contest. Look for Rittich to do just enough to lead his team to a victory in net, as New York should end its current losing run.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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