USA vs Canada Olympic Men's Hockey Gold Medal Game Odds & Prediction - 2/22/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The United States and Canada will face off in the gold medal game of the Olympic men's ice hockey tournament on Sunday in Milan. These have been the two best teams in this tournament by some margin, but only one of them will come away with the gold, while the other will be disappointed with silver. Before the puck is dropped in his massive matchup on the ice, I've broken down all the action, and you can find my USA vs Canada prediction below.
Pick: Canada ML ATS PRO
Confidence: ★★★★☆
The semifinal round for these two hockey powerhouses could not have looked more different. Canada fell behind by two goals against Finland in the first semifinal of the day and scrambled back in the final 20 minutes to win, including a game-winning goal in the final minute of the third period by Nathan MacKinnon. But the Canadians were far from convincing early in that game and they can't afford to fall behind against a stronger United States squad.
As for Team USA, they dominated Slovakia in the second semifinal, outscoring Slovakia 5-0 over the first two periods in a game that ultimately finished 6-2 in favor of the Americans. Five different Americans scored goals in that game, with Jack Hughes scoring twice to lead the US into the gold medal game. Team USA will see more resistance from the defense of Canada, but the Americans will be confident heading into this game based on how they have played in this tournament so far.
This will be the second straight major final that these countries have played against each other over the last couple of years. Canada got the better of the USA in the final of last year's Four Nations Face-Off, setting the stage for this gold medal game with NHL players involved. The margins in this game are expected to be razor-thin once again, and it could come down to which team avoids committing senseless penalties and making mistakes that open up scoring chances for their opposition.
Score Projection: Canada 3 – USA 2 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Canada 58%, USA 42% ATS PRO
After these two countries battled it out in a classic overtime game for the gold medal in women's hockey earlier this week, we could be in for another extremely tight game for the gold in men's hockey. The USA has looked better of late than Canada, but I also think that the Americans benefited from a more favorable schedule in getting to this point. I'm going to take Canada to win the gold and even the score after the US women won gold, but this game could certainly go either way.
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