USA vs Latvia Olympic Hockey Prediction & Preview - 2/12/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The United States men’s hockey team opens its quest for Olympic gold with a preliminary round game against Latvia on Thursday. After years away from the Olympics due to league policies, NHL stars are back in the Winter Games for the first time since 2014, and that infusion of elite talent has made the men’s bracket more competitive and exciting than ever. Team USA enters with strong expectations after a successful 2025 international campaign, while Latvia brings a few NHL contributors to the Italian ice. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my USA vs Latvia prediction.
Pick: Over 6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Team USA enters this tournament with high expectations after winning gold at the 2025 World Championships and finishing a close second in the World Cup of Hockey last year. That strong recent run against top competition has the Americans firmly in the conversation as one of the teams most capable of taking the gold in this event.
Latvia’s run to a bronze medal at the 2023 World Championship demonstrated that this small hockey nation is capable of surprising bigger programs, yet results against high-end teams in recent events suggest scoring will be tough for them against elite NHL talent.
In net for the U.S., veteran goaltenders such as Connor Hellebuyck bring experience and stability into the crease. Hellebuyck has been a Vezina Trophy winner and a pillar of Team USA’s successes. Latvia counters with NHL-experienced netminders, including Elvis Merzlikins and Artūrs Šilovs, both familiar with big stages and capable of keeping games close if they are sharp. Šilovs has had standout international performances in recent world tournaments, and Merzlikins’ experience in the NHL adds a layer of confidence for Latvia’s crew.
Team USA features a star-studded lineup led by captain Auston Matthews, backed by high-end forwards and defensemen. NHL-caliber talents such as Tage Thompson and Quinn Hughes provide both offensive firepower and two-way contributions that can tilt this game in the Americans' favor early. Latvia’s roster is not as deep, but includes contributors like Zemgus Girgensons and Teddy Blueger. These players bring international experience and a willingness to compete physically against top competition.
Score Projection: USA 5 – Latvia 2 ATS PRO
Win Probability: USA 85%, Latvia 15% ATS PRO
This opening Olympic game looks set to reflect the disparity in talent and depth between these two nations. The United States has a deeper roster filled with experienced NHL stars, while Latvia, even with capable goaltenders, may find it difficult to contain sustained pressure from Team USA. While I do think the US is going to win this contest, I don't like their current pricing and think that the over is a better selection in the betting markets here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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