USA vs Sweden Olympic Women's Hockey Semifinal Prediction - 2/16/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
Monday’s semifinal showdown at the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics pits the United States women's ice hockey team against Sweden in a battle that will decide who advances to the gold medal game. Both teams enter this game undefeated through group play and the quarterfinal round, setting up a high-stakes encounter between two Olympic hockey powerhouses. Before these two countries battle it out on the ice, you will find my USA vs Sweden prediction right here.
Pick: Sweden +4.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: ★★★★☆
USA enters this semifinal with a dominating performance through the early stages of the tournament. The Americans have outscored opponents by a combined margin of 26-1, including a historic 5-0 shutout over defending champion Canada and a 6-0 quarterfinal win over Italy. They have played impeccable two-way hockey on both ends of the ice. Sweden has also impressed, finishing perfect in Group B and advancing by defeating Czechia in the quarterfinals. Sweden outscored its opponents 20-2 through their first five games of this tournament and they look ready for their toughest test of the tournament here.
Both teams have been close to perfect when it comes to goaltending, allowing a combined three goals through 10 games. But this is where the tournament will get serious for both of these teams and both teams will face a lot more pressure on their goals going forward. It will be interesting to see which goalie does the best of job dealing with that in this semifinal matchup.
On offense, Team USA has been guided by top contributors such as Caroline Harvey, who leads the tournament with 9 points, and key forwards Alex Carpenter and Hannah Bilka. Sweden’s top skaters include Hanna Olsson, who ranks near the top of the tournament in points and power-play production, and Thea Johansson, who has been key in their scoring output. The US is going to be the deeper team, but Sweden can certainly hold its own.
Score Projection: USA 4 – Sweden 1 ATS PRO
Win Probability: USA 85%, Sweden 15% ATS PRO
The United States should be able to win and get to the final by beating Sweden here. But I'm going to take the Swedes to cover the puckline as massive underdogs. Sweden has been better than a lot of people realize in this tournament. And while that isn't going to be enough to advance them to the gold medal game, it should help Sweden stay within four goals.
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