Vancouver Canucks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction - 11/16/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Vancouver Canucks are heading into Benchmark International Arena to face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday. The Lightning are favored with home-ice advantage against a Vancouver team that is struggling of late. Before this matchup begins in Tampa, you can find my analysis of this game and my Canucks vs Lightning prediction below.
Pick: Vancouver Canucks Moneyline
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
The Lightning are showing steadier play of late, winning three of their last four games. They won on the road against the Florida Panthers on Saturday in a place where very few road teams have come out victorious. Vancouver has dropped three games in a row coming into this matchup and the Canucks will try to take advantage of any fatigue from the Lightning playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Vancouver’s defensive numbers have raised eyebrows. They allow 3.53 goals per game this season and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled with a .900 save percentage. We should see Canucks backup goalie Kevin Lankinen in this contest. Lankinen has struggled early in the year and will try to turn things around at home here.
Jake Guentzel remains a critical piece for Tampa Bay. He leads the Lightning with seven goals and 16 points overall this year. Elias Pettersson leads the Canucks with 15 points and Kiefer Sherwood has a team-high 11 goals on the year for Vancouver.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Jake Guentzel (Lightning) | Over 0.5 Points |
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) | Over 0.5 Assists |
Brayden Point (Lightning) | Over 0.5 Goals |
Brock Boeser (Canucks) | Over 0.5 Goals |
Score Projection: Lightning 2 – Canucks 3
Win Probability: Lightning 50%, Canucks 50%
Under normal rest, the Lightning would be in a great place to win this game against the Canucks. But with the Lightning on the second leg of a back-to-back, I'm expecting Vancouver to hang around throughout this one. I'll take the Canucks as a moneyline underdog after a game yesterday that could have taken a lot out of the Lightning.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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