Lazio vs Inter Coppa Italia Final Prediction: Inter Secure Domestic Double
Updated July 9, 2026
Inter Milan ML (-155) is our pick. Our model prices them at -200 to win this game in 90 minutes, making the available market line a meaningful edge in a match where the quality gap is stark. Inter are newly-crowned Serie A champions, beat Lazio 3-0 at this exact stadium four days ago without breaking a sweat, and have won the last three meetings in Rome by an 11-0 aggregate scoreline. Fair price: -200.
Match
Lazio vs Inter Milan
Kickoff
Wed May 13 - 3:00 PM ET
Venue
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Competition
Coppa Italia Final
Lazio ML / Draw
+400 / +275
Inter ML
-155
Lazio 22% Draw / ET / Pens 18% Inter 60%
Projected score
1 - 2
Inter win in 90 minutes
Last 3 meetings in Rome
11 - 0
Inter aggregate scoreline
Best bet
Inter Milan ML
-155
Model edge +6.8%
Confidence
Secondary
Inter -0.5
-170
Model edge +3.5%
Confidence
The market is underpricing Inter here. -155 for the Serie A champions against a Lazio side that sit 9th in the Serie A table and needed two penalty shootouts just to reach this final is too generous. The model puts Inter's win probability in 90 minutes at around 60%, which prices out at roughly -200 true odds. At -155 there is genuine edge, not just a lean.
The narrative around Lazio's motivation is valid. This is their only route into European football next season. That context changes how Sarri sets up his side. You will see a different Lazio tonight than the one that capitulated 3-0 on Saturday, when a Romagnoli red card killed the game midway through the second half as both managers rotated ahead of tonight's match. The full Sarri press, higher intensity, and Zaccagni on the ball will make this a proper contest.
But proper contest does not mean probable Lazio win. Inter have scored at least twice in each of their last seven competitive fixtures. They have Lautaro Martinez back and already in goalscoring form. Their squad depth even with Calhanoglu absent is simply beyond anything Lazio can match. The big occasion may neutralise some of the quality gap but not all of it. Inter are the right side to be on.
Lazio Metric (Coppa Italia 2025-26) Inter
6
Goals scored (4 games)
10
~48
Total shots (4 games)
54
9
GK saves (4 games)
4
85.3%
Pass accuracy (Serie A)
89.4%
20%
Cross completion
28.3%
~14
Mid-block
PPDA (lower = higher press)
~10
High press
Cup stats from Sofascore/Opta (4 Coppa Italia matches each). Pass accuracy and cross completion from Serie A 2025-26. PPDA approximate based on tactical profile.
The numbers from the cup run tell an important story. Inter have created 12 big chances in four Coppa Italia games to Lazio's five. Their 89.4% passing accuracy versus Lazio's 85.3% reflects the difference in how these sides circulate the ball under pressure. When Inter go long they do it deliberately - 51.5% of their long balls find a target - but their control game through Barella, Mkhitaryan and Zielinski is what sets them apart. Lazio rely more on direct switches (62.7% long ball completion) and wide pace, which works until they run into a back three as well-organised as Bastoni, Akanji and Bisseck.
Sarri's shape should create problems in transition. Isaksen and Zaccagni are quick enough to stretch Dumfries and Dimarco if Inter push both wing-backs high, and Noslin or Maldini as a lone striker gives them something direct to play off. The key tactical battle is Lazio's midfield pressing Barella and Zielinski before they can play through. In the league fixture, they couldn't do it consistently enough. With Romagnoli sent off midway through that game, the shape collapsed. In a cup final with the right lineup and the right mentality, Lazio will be more competitive than that result suggests. But competitive and likely to win are two different things.
Sarri is expected to return several players who were rested or absent on Saturday. Zaccagni missed last week with a foot injury but is available again and should reclaim his place in the front three alongside Isaksen. Tavares returns at left-back. Kenneth Taylor and Toma Basic anchor the midfield alongside Patric, though there are doubts around Cataldi and Cancellieri with muscular issues.
Up front, the striker situation remains unsettled. Castellanos left in January and none of Noslin, Maldini, or Dia have established themselves as a genuine first choice. Noslin is the likely starter. Lazio's only confirmed absence is first-choice goalkeeper Ivan Provedel, leaving teenager Edoardo Motta to start in a Coppa Italia final. He was the hero of the semi-final shootout against Atalanta, saving four consecutive spot kicks, so he goes into this with confidence, but starting against Lautaro Martinez in a final is a different challenge entirely.
Inter make several changes from Saturday's rotated XI. Sommer, Akanji, Zielinski, Dumfries, and Dimarco were all rested for the league game and return here. Barella starts. Mkhitaryan slots into the midfield three. Calhanoglu is out and will not feature, which removes their best chance creator and set-piece threat.
The major doubt is Thuram, who flagged a muscular complaint on Monday and has been assessed daily since. He trained with the squad on Tuesday and Chivu is expected to have a final decision closer to kickoff. If he doesn't start, Bonny likely moves into the front two alongside Lautaro, with Mkhitaryan shifting wider.
Lazio
4-3-3 (predicted)
ST
Noslin
LW
Zaccagni
RW
Isaksen
CM
Basic
CM
Patric
CM
Taylor
LB
Tavares
CB
Romagnoli
CB
Gila
RB
Marusic
GK
Motta
Inter Milan
3-5-2 (predicted)
ST
Thuram*
ST
L.Martinez
LWB
Dimarco
CM
Zielinski
CM
Barella
CM
Mkhitaryan
RWB
Dumfries
CB
Bisseck
CB
Akanji
CB
Bastoni
GK
Sommer
*Thuram fitness to be confirmed closer to kickoff after muscular complaint. If absent, Bonny expected to start alongside Lautaro. Provedel (knee) is Lazio's confirmed absence. Cataldi, Cancellieri, and Patric all carry muscular doubts.
Market Odds Implied Model Edge
Inter Milan ML Best bet
Win in 90 minutes
-155 60.8% 67.4% +6.8%
Inter -0.5
Asian handicap
-170 63.0% 67.4% +3.5%
Both Teams to Score
Yes / No market
+100 50.0% 53.0% +3.0%
Lazio ML
Moneyline
+400 20.0% 22.0% -0.8%
Implied probability from American odds. Model probability from our in-house projection model. Edge = model minus implied. Cup final odds include ET/penalties in draw price.
Inter ML at -155 is the best bet. The model puts their 90-minute win probability at 67.4% against a market-implied 60.8%, representing a 6.8% edge. The -0.5 handicap at -170 offers a slightly smaller edge on the same directional call, but at a price point where you give back more if Inter win 1-0 after extra time or on penalties (which wouldn't cash the handicap anyway in a 90-minute market).
BTTS at even money (+100) is an interesting secondary line. Three of Lazio's four Coppa Italia games have featured both sides scoring, and their attacking pace through Zaccagni and Isaksen is good enough to threaten Sommer on the break even if Inter control the game. The risk is that Inter replicate the Saturday shutout, which they're perfectly capable of doing. Projected score: Lazio 1-2 Inter.
What is the best bet for the Coppa Italia final?
Inter Milan ML at -155. The model prices their 90-minute win probability at 67.4% against a market-implied 60.8%, creating a 6.8% edge. Inter are Serie A champions, beat Lazio 3-0 at this ground four days ago, and have scored in every competitive fixture over the past seven games.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Inter?
The projected score is Lazio 1-2 Inter. Inter are expected to control the game through midfield, with Lautaro Martinez and Thuram (if fit) the most likely goalscorers. Lazio's pace on the flanks through Zaccagni and Isaksen gives them a route to at least one goal on the counter.
Is Marcus Thuram playing in the Coppa Italia final?
Thuram is doubtful after flagging a muscular complaint on Monday. He trained with the squad on Tuesday and Inter are expected to make a final decision closer to kickoff. If he doesn't start, Petar Sucic is expected to partner Lautaro Martinez in the front two.
Why are Lazio underdogs in their own stadium?
Lazio finished ninth in Serie A this season, 21 points behind Inter. They reached this final via penalty shootouts in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals. Inter beat them 3-0 at the Stadio Olimpico four days ago and have won the last three meetings in Rome by an 11-0 aggregate scoreline. Home advantage counts for something in a final, but not enough to overcome a gap this wide.
What time does the Coppa Italia final kick off?
Kick-off is at 9:00 PM CEST, 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday May 13. The match is live on Paramount+ in the US and Premier Sports 1 in the UK.
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