Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction: Gunners Edge Closer to Glory
Updated July 9, 2026
Arsenal to win to nil at -155 is the pick. The model puts the probability at 72%, against the 60.8% implied by the current line, giving an 11.2% edge. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in each of their last three league games. Burnley haven't scored in four of their last five away matches and didn't manage a single shot on target when these sides met at Turf Moor in November. The moneyline at -900 is dead money. The win to nil is where any value in this fixture lies. Fair price: -225.
Match
Arsenal vs Burnley
Kickoff
Mon May 18 - 3:00 PM ET
Venue
Emirates Stadium
Competition
Premier League - GW37
Arsenal ML
-900
Draw / Burnley ML
+1000 / +1800
Arsenal 91% Draw 6% Burnley 3%
Projected score
3 - 0
Arsenal win to nil
Reverse fixture
0 - 2
Arsenal win to nil, Nov 2025
Best bet
Arsenal to Nil
-155
Model edge +11.2%
Confidence
The moneyline at -900 tells you everything about how lopsided this is. It also tells you there's nothing to extract from it. Arsenal to nil at -155 is where the market has left room. The model prices it at 72% against the 60.8% implied, and the data backs that up on both sides of the ball.
Arsenal have kept clean sheets in three straight league games, conceding just 11 goals at home all season. Burnley haven't scored in four of their last five away matches. When these sides met at Turf Moor in November, Burnley didn't put a single shot on target. The Emirates version gives Arsenal a home crowd pushing for goals from the first whistle, with a relegated side that has nothing to defend and no real threat to offer.
The one caveat worth flagging is that the clean sheet market always carries late-consolation exposure. Jaidon Anthony is quick enough to punish a high line if the game is already gone and Jackson's players have nothing to lose. That's the risk. It's real but it's priced in.
Arsenal Metric (last 5 lg) Burnley
2.30 xG For 0.60
1.10 xGA (lower = better) 2.14
6.2 Shots on Target 1.8
0.4 Goals Conceded 2.4
10.1 PPDA (lower = more press) 16.4
Per game averages. xG/xGA via xgstat.com. PPDA via fbref.com. Shots on target and goals conceded last 5 league matches.
Arsenal's xGA over their last five league matches sits at 1.098 per game. Burnley away have been generating just 0.6 xG per match on the road. Jackson's 4-2-3-1 is built to stay compact rather than press, which suits Arsenal fine. Rice and Lewis-Skelly control the tempo without being stretched, and Saliba and Gabriel haven't been beaten at home since February.
Burnley's best route to a goal is a set piece or a transition, and they've converted neither consistently this season. The tactical picture points firmly toward a quiet night for Raya and a controlled Arsenal performance that makes the nil look comfortable well before the final whistle.
Arsenal are without Ben White (MCL, season over), Jurrien Timber (groin) and Mikel Merino (foot). Calafiori came off at half-time against West Ham and is a doubt; Arteta said Thursday his fitness hasn't been fully assessed. If he can't go, Hincapie covers at right-back with Saliba and Gabriel unchanged in the centre.
Burnley are missing Cullen, Roberts and Beyer, with Hannibal Mejbri a late call after picking up a knock against Aston Villa. If he misses out, Burnley lose their only real creative outlet in midfield and the to-nil case gets even cleaner.
Arsenal
4-2-3-1 (predicted)
ST
Gyokeres
LW
Trossard
AM
Odegaard
RW
Saka
DM
Rice
CM
Lewis-S.
LB
Calafiori
CB
Gabriel
CB
Saliba
RB
Mosquera
GK
Raya
Burnley
4-2-3-1 (predicted)
ST
Flemming
LM
Anthony
AM
Hannibal
RM
Tchaouna
DM
Florentino
CM
Ugochukwu
LB
Pires
CB
Esteve
CB
Tuanzebe
RB
Walker
GK
Weiss
Subject to currently available data and injury news. Calafiori's availability is unconfirmed; Hincapie starts at LB if he can't go. Hannibal is a game-time decision for Burnley.
Market Odds Implied Model Edge
Arsenal to Nil Best bet
Clean sheet market
-155 60.8% 72.0% +11.2%
Arsenal ML
Moneyline
-900 90.0% 91.0% N/A
Implied probability from American odds. Model probability from our in-house projection model. Edge = model minus implied. Arsenal to Nil odds via bet365.
Arsenal to nil at -155 is the cleanest play on the board, with the Gunners projected to win 3/0 according to our model. Three straight clean sheets, a relegated side that hasn't scored on the road in four of their last five, and a matchup where Burnley's only realistic route to a goal is a transition or a set piece against a defence that hasn't been beaten at home since February.
Who is the favorite for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Arsenal are overwhelming favorites at -900, with Burnley at +1800 and the draw at +1000.
What is the best bet for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Arsenal to win to nil at -155. The model prices the probability at 72% against the 60.8% implied, giving an 11.2% edge. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in their last three league games and Burnley haven't scored in four of their last five away matches.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Arsenal 3-0 Burnley. That matches the reverse fixture result from Turf Moor in November and reflects Arsenal's defensive form, Burnley's road record, and the motivation of a title-chasing home side with goal difference to think about.
Can Arsenal win the Premier League title against Burnley?
Not outright on Monday night. A win moves Arsenal to 82 points, but the title is only confirmed if Manchester City fail to beat Bournemouth on Tuesday. Win both remaining fixtures and Arsenal are champions regardless of City's results.
What time does Arsenal vs Burnley kick off?
Kick-off is at 8:00 PM BST, 3:00 PM ET on Monday May 18. The match is live on USA Network in the US and Sky Sports in the UK.
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