Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction: Party Time for Gunners at Selhurst
Updated July 9, 2026
The draw at +340 is our pick. Our model puts the probability at 28%, against the 22.7% implied by the current line, giving a 5.3% edge. Arsenal are champions and have nothing left to fight for, and Arteta will rotate ahead of the Champions League final against PSG on May 30. Palace have their own European final against Rayo Vallecano in three days after this fixture, and Glasner will manage minutes carefully in his final match at Selhurst Park. Fair price: +280.
Match
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Kickoff
Sun May 24 — 10:00 AM ET
Venue
Selhurst Park
Competition
Premier League — GW38
Palace ML
+550
Draw / Arsenal ML
+340 / -200
Palace 20% Draw 28% Arsenal 52%
Projected score
1 - 1
Draw
Reverse fixture
5 - 1
Arsenal win at Emirates, Dec 2025
Best bet
Draw
+340
Model edge +5.3%
Confidence
Arsenal are champions, a fact that entire alters what is at stake in this game. Arteta has a Champions League final against PSG to prepare for, and would be foolish to risk Saka, Gabriel, Rice, or Saliba for 90 minutes at Selhurst Park when the trophy has already been secured.
The -200 is pricing a full-strength Arsenal going after three points, and while Arteta has said he wants to finish with a win, the result is secondary for The Gunners. The laps of honour, the trophy presentation and the open-top bus parade will be on the minds of players and supporters alike, and nobody will remember the result of this match in years to come.
Palace have their own calculation to make. Their Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano is on Wednesday May 27 in Poznan. Glasner played a strong side against Brentford last Sunday, but is unlikely to have the same appetite for risk here. The message from south London this week will be rotation and preservation.
Neither team is going to press hard, neither team is going to be fully motivated to defend a lead in the 85th minute, and neither manager is going to be furious if the game finishes level. The draw is the path of least resistance for both sides and the market at +340 hasn't fully accounted for how little a result means on Sunday.
The case against is that Arsenal's fringe players, coming in for their biggest league opportunity of the season, will want to play their way into contention for a role in the Champions League final. The likes of Trossard and Martinelli aren't players who will want to throw games away, and Arteta won't completely dismantle the XI. But the combination of rotation on both sides, a trophy party atmosphere, and nothing riding on the result is enough. Take the draw at +340.
Crystal Palace Metric (last 5 lg) Arsenal
1.20 xG For 2.10
1.60 xGA (lower = better) 0.80
3.2 Shots on Target 5.6
1.8 Goals Conceded 0.6
13.8 PPDA (lower = more press) 8.4
Per game averages. xG/xGA via fbref.com. PPDA via fbref.com. Shots on target and goals conceded last 5 league matches.
On paper, this is one of the most lopsided matchups of the entire season. Arsenal's 0.80 xGA per game over the last five is the best defensive number in the division, and their PPDA of 8.4 reflects how aggressively they've pressed in the final weeks of the title run-in.
Palace's 1.6 xGA shows a defence that has been leaking. The metrics say Arsenal win comfortably. But these are metrics from games that mattered. Sunday doesn't, at least not for Arsenal. A rotated XI going through the motions against a Glasner side in self-preservation mode looks nothing like the form data.
Glasner's 3-4-2-1 is compact enough to frustrate a second-string Arsenal on the counter, and Guessand and Pino on transitions can hurt whoever steps in at fullback. There is a wide gap between these sides on the data front, but these numbers do not reflect the rotated XIs who will take the field on Sunday.
It is highly unlikely that Mikel Arteta will take any unnecessary risks with the Arsenal XI. Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, Riccardo Calafiori and Saka have all been managing knocks and minor injuries and will be given limited minutes at most. Ben White suffered a significant knee injury at West Ham and is done for the campaign. Mikel Merino has a foot issue and is unlikely to travel.
With the PSG final six days away, expect Arteta to rest Saka, Gyokeres, and potentially Rice. Trossard, Martinelli, Eze, Zubimendi, and Hincapie are candidates for the XI, with Raya, Gyokeres and Saliba the only regulars in line to start.
Palace are also managing their squad for Wednesday. Cheick Doucoure has been out all season with a knee injury. Chadi Riad, Borna Sosa, and Caleb Kporha are all unavailable. Eddie Nketiah is injured. Chris Richards twisted his ankle against Brentford last Sunday and is being assessed, though Glasner said he hoped to have him back midweek.
Sarr, Munoz, Wharton and Mateta are all candidates to be rested or managed off the bench, which could see Pino, Clyne, Hughes and Strand Larsen start in their place.
Crystal Palace
3-4-2-1 (predicted)
ST
Strand Larsen
AM
Guessand
AM
Pino
LWB
Mitchell
CM
Hughes
CM
Kamada
RWB
Clyne
CB
Lacroix
CB
Canvot
CB
Lerma
GK
Henderson
Arsenal
4-3-3 (predicted)
LW
Martinelli
ST
Trossard
RW
Madueke
CM
Eze
CM
Zubimendi
CM
Lewis-Skelly
LB
Hincapie
CB
Saliba
CB
Gabriel
RB
Mosquera
GK
Raya
Subject to currently available data. Rotation expected from both sides. Saka, Gyokeres, Rice and Calafiori may all be rested by Arteta ahead of the Champions League final. Ben White is ruled out for Arsenal. For Palace, Chris Richards is a doubt with an ankle injury; Doucoure, Riad, Sosa, Kporha, and Nketiah are all out.
Market Odds Implied Model Edge
Draw Best bet
1X2 market
+340 22.7% 28.0% +5.3%
Arsenal ML
Moneyline
-200 66.7% 52.0% -14.7%
Palace ML
Moneyline
+550 15.4% 20.0% +4.6%
Implied probability from American odds. Model probability from our in-house projection model. Edge = model minus implied. Odds via bet365.
Arsenal ML at -200 is the worst value on the board. Pricing them at 66.7% to win assumes a full-strength side motivated to chase three points. Neither is true on Sunday. The model puts their actual win probability, accounting for rotation and motivation, closer to 52%.
The draw at +340 is where the edge sits, returning a 5.3% model advantage. Palace ML at +550 has marginal positive edge (20% model vs 15.4% implied) and is worth a small look if you want to speculate on a dead rubber upset, but the draw is the cleaner play. Take the +340.
Who is the favorite for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are heavy favorites at -200, with Crystal Palace at +550 and the draw at +340. The market is pricing a full-strength Arsenal, but heavy rotation is expected from Arteta ahead of the Champions League final against PSG on May 30.
What is the best bet for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
The draw at +340. The model prices the probability at 28% against the 22.7% implied, a 5.3% edge. Arsenal have already won the title, face a Champions League final in six days, and will rotate heavily. Palace also have a Conference League final on Wednesday.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
1-1. With both teams rotating and neither manager particularly focused on the result, a low-scoring share of the points is the most likely outcome. Arsenal have enough quality even in a rotated XI to score, but Palace are compact enough to nick an equaliser on the counter.
Have Arsenal already won the Premier League?
Yes. Arsenal were confirmed Premier League champions on Tuesday May 19 after Manchester City drew 1-1 at Bournemouth. It is Arsenal's first league title since the Invincibles season of 2003-04, and Mikel Arteta becomes the first former Premier League player to win the title as a manager.
Will Arsenal rotate for the Crystal Palace game?
Almost certainly. Arsenal face PSG in the Champions League final on May 30 in Budapest. Arteta is expected to rest key players including Saka, Gyokeres, and possibly Rice, with Trossard, Martinelli, Eze, Nwaneri, and Zubimendi among those likely to start instead.
What time does Crystal Palace vs Arsenal kick off?
Kick-off is at 3:00 PM BST, 10:00 AM ET on Sunday May 24. The match is live on Sky Sports in the UK and on Peacock in the United States.
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