Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction: Can Reds Seal Their UCL Spot?
Updated July 9, 2026
Liverpool to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+155) is the pick. Our model prices it at +125, a 6.4% edge the market is leaving on the table because books are pricing the result and the total separately rather than recognising what a six-game losing streak does to a Chelsea attack that's already underperforming its xG by nearly 16 goals from open play.
Chelsea arrive at Anfield with an interim manager, six straight defeats, and a 542-minute league scoring drought only just snapped against Forest. Liverpool need a win to confirm Champions League football and have lost just one of their last four home games against the Blues. Fair Price: +125.
Premier League GW37
Liverpool
-110
vs
Sat May 9
Chelsea
+290
Predicted score
2 - 0
Liverpool win
Chelsea xG underperformance
-15.9
Open play, this season
Best bet
Liverpool & Under 3.5
+155
~6.4% model edge • 3/5 confidence
Sharp take
The market sees Liverpool's defensive wobbles and Chelsea's recent goal against Forest and prices BTTS as a coin flip. The sharps see a Chelsea side that's underperforming its open-play xG by 15.9 goals, an interim manager with no settled tactical idea, two strikers carrying knocks, and a goalkeeper in concussion protocol. Liverpool win it. The total stays manageable. +155 on the result-and-total combo is where the value sits.
Chelsea are in freefall. Six straight defeats. An interim manager in Calum McFarlane who has yet to find anything close to a coherent attacking pattern. A 542-minute Premier League scoring drought finally broken in stoppage time against Forest, and that was in a 3-1 home defeat to a side fighting for European football. They sit ninth, mathematically out of the top five, with their entire continental hope now resting on Aston Villa winning the Europa League.
That's the team turning up to Anfield against a Liverpool side that needs three points to confirm Champions League qualification. The market has Liverpool around -110 outright, which is fair, but the result-and-total combo at +155 is where the real edge lives. Chelsea's open-play attacking output has been one of the worst-converting in the division relative to xG. Eight penalties have padded their goal total. Strip those out, and the goal-scoring picture against a settled Liverpool defence becomes very thin. Under 3.5 hits in four of Chelsea's last five matches, and a Liverpool win at home is the most-likely individual outcome on the board.
Chelsea's underlying numbers are the cleanest read on why this losing run isn't reversing this weekend. They've scored 54 goals off 69.6 xG across the season, which on the surface looks like normal variance. But eight of those 54 are penalties, and once you isolate open-play production, Chelsea have underperformed their xG from open play by 15.9 goals. That's not a hot or cold streak. That's a structural finishing problem that's been baked in all season and has only intensified since McFarlane took the dugout.
The xG itself isn't the issue. Chelsea generate volume. What they don't do is finish. Cole Palmer has had stretches where he's looked like the player who carried them last year, but he's been targeted by every defensive structure that faces them and the chance quality has dropped. Pedro has scored Chelsea's only Premier League goal across their last three matches, and that came in stoppage time against Forest. There's no rhythm in possession, no third-man combinations, no settled front line because the front line keeps changing depending on which winger has just picked up a knock.
Liverpool's defensive numbers are messy too. They posted 2.3 xGA against United on Sunday, all from open play, and have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight. The xG concession isn't catastrophic but the goals against figure has been propped up by opposition red cards and shooting variance. Strip the luck out and the defensive picture looks closer to mid-table than title-winning. That's the case for Chelsea finding the net once at Anfield. It's not the case for them finding it twice.
The midfield matchup tilts Liverpool's way regardless of who Slot picks. Mac Allister and Gravenberch as a double pivot has been Liverpool's most reliable structure since Christmas, and Wirtz operating with creative freedom in the half-spaces is a problem Chelsea's midfield without Caicedo at his peak struggles to track. Chelsea's pressing intensity has dropped through the losing run; they're letting opponents play through them too easily, and Wirtz is exactly the player to exploit a passive press at tempo.
The wildcard is Liverpool's goalkeeper situation. If Mamardashvili doesn't pass his fitness test, Freddie Woodman starts again. Woodman conceded three at Old Trafford on Sunday and his distribution under press is well below the level Slot's build-up demands. That's the realistic scenario where Chelsea sneak a goal and the game opens up slightly. But even with Woodman in goal, Chelsea's open-play conversion rate makes a multi-goal Chelsea performance the long-shot outcome, not the base case.
Liverpool are dealing with a number of injuries. Mohamed Salah misses out with the hamstring injury he picked up against Crystal Palace; Slot has hinted Aston Villa next week is more realistic for the Egyptian's return. Alexander Isak looks set to play some part in this fixture, with Slot saying the Swedish striker was able to participate in "parts of" training on Thursday , before adding "we will see how much we can use him tomorrow". Hugo Ekitike is finished for the season after rupturing his Achilles against PSG, ruling him out of the World Cup as well.
Alisson Becker will miss this fixture as well after Slot confirmed in his pre-match press conference that he has not yet returned to training. Giorgi Mamardashvili, however, returned to training on Friday and is in contention to start. If the georgian is not ready to return, Freddie Woodman will continue in goal. Conor Bradley, Wataru Endo and Giovanni Leoni are the long-term absentees who won't feature again this season.
Curtis Jones could continue to deputise at right-back, with Slot preferring the Melwood product to Frimpong in recent weeks. The midfield trio of Mac Allister, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai picks itself, and Wirtz is the one who carries the creative load with Salah out. Up top, if Isak makes it, he leads the line. If he doesn't, Slot's options are thin and a false-nine setup with Wirtz or Gakpo central becomes the realistic alternative.
Chelsea's situation is, if anything, worse. Robert Sanchez is in concussion protocol after a brutal head clash with Morgan Gibbs-White against Forest and faces stringent FA return-to-play assessments. Filip Jorgensen is the likely replacement if Sanchez doesn't pass. Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho both missed the Forest game with knocks and remain doubts; Jesse Derry was knocked unconscious after a clash of heads on his Premier League debut and won't be available. Estevao is out for the season with a hamstring issue. Jamie Gittens is also ruled out, and Mykhailo Mudryk remains unavailable due to his ongoing FA suspension.
The encouraging note for Chelsea is that Reece James returned to the matchday squad against Forest and Levi Colwill made his comeback after a long-term knee absence. Both are likely to be involved at Anfield, although asking Colwill for 90 minutes of intensity in his first start back is a stretch. The defensive options are stretched, the attacking depth is essentially Pedro plus whoever can pass a fitness test on Friday afternoon.
Liverpool
4-2-3-1
ST
Isak
LW
Gakpo
AM
Szoboszlai
RW
Wirtz
DM
Mac Allister
DM
Gravenberch
LB
Robertson
CB
Van Dijk
CB
Konate
RB
Frimpong
GK
Woodman
vs
Chelsea
4-2-3-1
ST
Pedro
LW
Neto
AM
Palmer
RW
Garnacho
DM
Caicedo
DM
Lavia
LB
Cucurella
CB
Colwill
CB
Chalobah
RB
James
GK
Jorgensen
Subject to currently available data and injury news. Will be updated ahead of kickoff. Salah is out injured. Isak and Mamardashvili are late fitness tests. For Chelsea, Sanchez is in concussion protocol with Jorgensen the likely replacement. Neto and Garnacho are both doubts.
Odds comparison
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Bet Market Fair price Edge
Liverpool & Under 3.5
Best bet • 4/5
+155 +125 +6.4%
Liverpool clean sheet
Props play
+135 +105 +5.1%
Wirtz anytime
Props play
+165 +135 +4.6%
Liverpool to win
Context
-110 -130 +3.0%
Palmer under 0.5 goals
Secondary play
-135 -160 +2.8%
Chelsea draw no bet
No value
+200 +275 --
The market sees a wounded Liverpool and a Chelsea side that scored a goal on Monday and has somehow priced this closer to a contested game than the data supports. Chelsea's open-play attacking output is broken. Their goalkeeper is in concussion protocol. Their two starting wingers are doubts. Their interim manager has yet to win a Premier League match.
Liverpool to Win & Under 3.5 at +155 is the number. The model prices it at +125, making this a plus-money line on a high-confidence outcome. Liverpool find a way to break Chelsea down once or twice, the visitors' open-play production stays within its broken pattern, and the game finishes well inside the total. That's the most likely combined outcome on the board, and the books are pricing in too much variance on the Chelsea side of it.
Who is the favorite for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Liverpool are heavy home favorites at around -110, with Chelsea at +290 and the draw at approximately +300.
What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Liverpool to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+155). The model prices it at +125, a 6.4% edge. Chelsea are on a six-game losing run, have underperformed their open-play xG by 15.9 goals this season, and arrive at Anfield with their goalkeeper in concussion protocol and both starting wingers as doubts.
Will Mohamed Salah and Alexander Isak play for Liverpool?
Salah is unlikely to feature, with a return more realistic for next week's Aston Villa fixture. Isak is a late call after sitting out the United defeat with a groin issue described as 'really small' by Slot. Both will face fitness tests on Friday.
What is the best Chelsea-related prop for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Cole Palmer Under 0.5 Goals at around -135 is the cleanest play. Palmer has struggled against top-six opposition this season, his role keeps shifting under McFarlane, and Liverpool's compact midfield will limit his space. The chance volume he generates from wide positions has converted at a poor rate.
How do the injuries affect Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Liverpool are without Salah, Ekitike, Bradley, Endo and Leoni, with Isak and Mamardashvili as late doubts. Chelsea have Robert Sanchez in concussion protocol, Estevao and Gittens out for the season, and Pedro Neto, Alejandro Garnacho and Jesse Derry as further fitness concerns. Reece James and Levi Colwill are both back in contention after long absences.
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