Napoli vs Udinese Prediction: Napoli Aim to Entertain the Maradona
Updated July 9, 2026
Over 2.5 goals at -125 is the pick. The model puts the probability at 63%, against the 55.6% implied by the current line, giving a 7.4% edge. Napoli average 2.51 goals per game across all their Serie A matches this season and Udinese average 2.49.
Their H2H has produced BTTS in 68% of all-time meetings. Hojlund and De Bruyne in attack against a Udinese side that conceded three at home to Fiorentina and two away at Lazio in recent weeks is not a shutout waiting to happen, and Runjaic's side will come forward too. Fair price: -190.
Match
Napoli vs Udinese
Kickoff
Sun May 24 — 12:00 PM ET
Venue
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Competition
Serie A — Round 38
Napoli ML
-200
Draw / Udinese ML
+340 / +550
Napoli 57% Draw 26% Udinese 17%
Projected score
2 - 1
Napoli win
Reverse fixture
4 - 0
Napoli win at Maradona, Nov 2025
Best bet
Over 2.5 Goals
-125
Model edge +7.4%
Confidence
The value in this game is in goals. Napoli average 2.51 goals per match across all their Serie A fixtures this season, while Udinese average 2.49. The market is offering you -125 for something the data suggests happens 63% of the time. That is a 7.4% edge and it's the cleanest number on the board for this fixture.
Conte wants to send his squad into the summer on a high. Napoli won the Scudetto last season and they will finish second this year. The fan expectation at the Maradona on a final day is a proper send-off performance, not a conservative 1-0.
De Bruyne is expected back in the XI after being rested at Pisa, which makes the attack significantly more dangerous. Hojlund has been starved of goals in recent weeks but has looked sharper in the build-up play, and Alisson Santos has scored in two of his last three games at the Maradona. While they have been inconsistent of late, Napoli score goals at home.
Udinese will contribute. This is not a team that parks the bus at the Maradona hoping for a 0-0. Runjaic plays on the front foot and Buksa has 10 league goals this season.
The H2H also backs up this theory. BTTS has landed in 68% of all-time Serie A meetings between these clubs, and three of their last six meetings produced three or more goals. The only real risk to the over is a Napoli blitz in the first 20 minutes that kills the game early, but even then Udinese's attacking quality makes a single-goal reply likely.
Napoli Metric (last 5 lg) Udinese
1.80 xG For 1.40
1.60 xGA (lower = better) 1.20
4.2 Shots on Target 3.4
1.6 Goals Conceded 0.8
49% BTTS Rate (season) 46%
Per game averages. xG/xGA via fbref.com. Shots on target and goals conceded last 5 league matches. BTTS rate across full 2025-26 Serie A season.
Both sides carry nearly identical season averages for total goals, both have BTTS rates near 50%, and the H2H sits at 68% BTTS across all-time meetings. Udinese's 0.8 goals conceded per game over the last five looks solid, but that sample includes two dead rubbers and a loss to Cremonese when the pressure had clearly come off.
Napoli's 1.6 xGA is more representative. They've been leaky, particularly from open play, and their high defensive line creates space on the counter that a Buksa-Davis partnership can exploit. Conte's 3-4-2-1 is set up to dominate possession and create volume. With De Bruyne back and Alisson Santos sharp at the Maradona, the chances will come. The question is only whether Udinese find the one goal that lands the over, and their 1.40 xG per game suggests they will.
Romelu Lukaku will not feature, and his relationship with the club's hierarchy is broken. Matteo Politano served a one-match suspension at Pisa and returns to contention at right wing-back. David Neres remains sidelined with a muscle injury. Conte is expected to bring De Bruyne back into the XI after benching him at Pisa for tactical reasons, with Elmas dropping out. Di Lorenzo should return to his more natural right wing-back position with Beukema slotting back into the back three. Hojlund starts up top and has looked sharper in build-up play over the last two weeks despite a dry run for goals.
Udinese are without Branimir Mlacic and Alessandro Zanoli through injury. Kingsley Ehizibue is suspended after accumulating five bookings, with Arizala or Piotrowski the likely cover on the right flank. Nicolo Zaniolo is a doubt with a knock he has been carrying since mid-May and is being assessed day-to-day. Buksa and Keinan Davis lead the line, with Karlstrom keeping the armband in midfield. Okoye, who has been nominated for Serie A goalkeeper of the month, starts in goal.
Napoli
3-4-2-1 (predicted)
ST
Hojlund
AM
De Bruyne
AM
Alisson Santos
LWB
Spinazzola
CM
Lobotka
CM
McTominay
RWB
Di Lorenzo
CB
Buongiorno
CB
Rrahmani
CB
Beukema
GK
Meret
Udinese
3-5-2 (predicted)
ST
Davis
ST
Buksa
LM
Kamara
CM
Karlstrom
CM
Atta
CM
Piotrowski
RM
Arizala
CB
Kabasele
CB
Solet
CB
Kristensen
GK
Okoye
Subject to currently available lineup data.
Market Odds Implied Model Edge
Over 2.5 Goals Best bet
Totals market
-125 55.6% 63.0% +7.4%
BTTS Yes
Both teams to score
-145 59.2% 63.0% +3.8%
Napoli ML
Moneyline
-200 66.7% 57.0% -9.7%
Implied probability from American odds. Model probability from our in-house projection model. Edge = model minus implied. Odds via bet365.
Over 2.5 at -125 is the play, returning a 7.4% model edge. That is the strongest number on the board and it's grounded in two of Serie A's most consistently open teams meeting in a season finale where both managers want to entertain.
BTTS Yes at -145 also has positive edge at 3.8% and stacks cleanly with the over. You can take both if you want exposure in two directions, though the over covers a broader range of outcomes. Napoli ML at -200 has the worst edge on the board. The result market is mispriced: the model has Napoli at 57%, well short of the 66.7% implied. Skip the result, back the goals.
Who is the favorite for Napoli vs Udinese?
Napoli are heavy favorites at -200, with Udinese at +550 and the draw at +340. The result market is not where the value sits in this game. Our model has Napoli at 57%, well short of the 66.7% implied by -200.
What is the best bet for Napoli vs Udinese?
Over 2.5 goals at -125. The model prices the probability at 63% against the 55.6% implied, a 7.4% edge. Both teams average over 2.49 goals per game this season and their H2H has produced both teams scoring in 68% of all-time Serie A meetings.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Udinese?
2-1 to Napoli. Conte's side should have enough quality to win in front of their own fans on the final day of the season, but Udinese have the attacking tools to score through Buksa and Davis. Three goals minimum is the most likely total.
Did Napoli qualify for the Champions League?
Yes. Napoli secured second place and Champions League qualification with a 3-2 win at Pisa on May 17.
Is Romelu Lukaku playing for Napoli vs Udinese?
No. Lukaku has returned to Belgium for rehabilitation ahead of the 2026 World Cup, and his contract at the club could be terminated. Rasmus Hojlund is Napoli's first-choice striker and leads the line on Sunday.
What time does Napoli vs Udinese kick off?
Kick-off is at 6:00 PM local time (CET), 5:00 PM BST, 12:00 PM ET on Sunday May 24. The match is broadcast live on DAZN in Italy and on Paramount+ in the United States.
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