Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal Preview & Match Prediction- 2/22/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The North London Derby returns to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday 22nd February 2026, with the two rivals experiencing vastly different seasons. Arsenal arrive as league leaders with 57 points, sitting at the top of the table and eyeing their first title in over 20 years. By contrast, Tottenham find themselves in 16th place with only 29 points, a staggering 28 points behind their neighbors and just 5 points away from the relegation zone. Following the recent departure of Thomas Frank, Igor Tudor takes charge of a Spurs side that has failed to win a league match in 2026. While derbies often ignore the form book, the statistical gap between these teams has rarely been wider heading into a February clash.
Pick:
Arsenal ML (-182) ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5 stars
Arsenal enter this fixture following a frustrating 2-2 draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers on Wednesday. Despite leading 2-0, the Gunners conceded a 94th minute equalizer, a result that leaves them potentially only two points ahead of Manchester City with a showdown against the Citizens at the Etihad Stadium still to come later in the season. Mikel Arteta will demand an immediate response to ensure his side maintains control of the title race. The Gunners have been dominant in recent derbies, winning five of the last six encounters, including a 4-1 victory earlier this season where Eberechi Eze scored a hat-trick. Arsenal have also won on their last three visits to this stadium, proving they can handle the hostile atmosphere.
Tottenham are currently struggling through one of their most difficult periods in recent history. The team has not recorded a Premier League victory in 2026 and sit dangerously close to the relegation zone. New manager Igor Tudor faces an immediate test of his tactical setup against one of the more prolific attacks in the division. Spurs have committed a league-high 14 errors leading to shots this season, a statistic that Arsenal’s high-pressing system is likely to exploit. While the home side has managed to score regularly at home, their defensive stability remains a major concern, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their recent run of eight winless matches.
Team news will play a significant role in the final lineups. Arsenal are hopeful that Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz can return from injury, but Bukayo Saka is a doubt after being withdrawn against Wolves through injury. For Tottenham, the injury list is extensive. They will be without Wilson Odobert, who recently suffered an ACL injury which rules him out for the remainder of the season, while Destiny Udogie and Dejan Kulusevski will also be sidelined. The absence of key creative players puts additional pressure on Dominic Solanke and Xavi Simons to produce moments of individual quality against an Arsenal defense that has conceded only 17 goals in 25 matches.
The betting markets heavily favor the visitors, reflecting the current league standings and historical data. Arsenal are priced at -182 to win, while a Tottenham victory is available at odds around +550. A draw is currently listed at +310. Statistical trends suggest a high-scoring affair, as over 2.5 goals has occurred in 5 of the last 7 Arsenal matches. Both teams to score is another popular market at -133, given that Tottenham often find the net at home despite their poor results.
While the appointment of Igor Tudor may provide a temporary emotional lift for the home crowd, the technical disparity is too great to ignore. Arsenal possess superior ball control and a more settled defensive structure. The Gunners average 2.0 goals per game compared to Tottenham’s 1.4, and their ability to convert set pieces, with 18 goals from dead-ball situations this season, combined with Tottenham´s relative vulnerability in this area, could prove decisive. Expect Tottenham to press high and be fast in transition under their new manager, and they are likely to score in front of a baying home crowd. However, Arsenal’s depth and tactical discipline should prove pivotal, and despite their recent blip they should be able to overwhelm their North London rivals. A fairly comfortable victory for the league leaders at the home of their fiercest rivals is the most logical outcome.
Score Projection: Tottenham 1 – Arsenal 3
Win Probability: Tottenham 14%, Draw 19%, Arsenal 67%
Simon Cripps
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