Colombia vs DR Congo Prediction: World Cup Preview & Best Bet
Updated 09 Jul, 2026
Matchday 2 | Group K | June 23, 2026 | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara | 10 PM ET
Colombia and DR Congo meet in Guadalajara on June 23 with Group K suddenly looking far more awkward than Portugal expected.
Colombia opened with a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, while DR Congo earned a deserved 1-1 draw against Portugal in one of the better defensive performances of Matchday 1. That sets up a high-stakes match between two sides harboring ambitions of winning Group K. Luis Diaz and Colombia can take a major step toward the knockout stage with another win, but DR Congo have already shown they are not just here to defend and hope.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals -151
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Colombia are rightly favored, but the current moneyline is not the best betting route. The market has Colombia around -186, with DR Congo around +544. That is a big respect price on Colombia, and while they are the better team, the model sits closer to 58% than the implied market number.
The stronger angle is the total. Colombia generated 1.61 xG and 61% possession in their 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, but that scoreline had some late padding. Daniel Munoz opened the scoring, Luis Diaz restored the lead after Uzbekistan equalized, and Jaminton Campaz sealed it in stoppage time. Colombia were efficient rather than explosive.
DR Congo’s draw with Portugal was not a fluke. They kept Portugal to 0.65 xG from 7 shots despite spending long spells without the ball, and they created 0.87 xG themselves. Yoane Wissa’s equalizer came from a well-worked set-piece situation, but the broader point is that Sebastien Desabre’s side are organized, physical, and comfortable defending in a compact shape.
That makes this a different test for Colombia. Luis Diaz is the clear matchup problem, especially after scoring and assisting in the opener, but DR Congo’s 5-3-2 is built to deny easy central access and break through Wissa, Cedric Bakambu, and the wing-backs. Nestor Lorenzo has already warned that Colombia need calm heads against those transitions, and that should produce a more controlled match than the 3-1 opener suggests.
The risk to the under is game state. If DR Congo score first, Colombia have the quality to turn this into a more open second half. But if Colombia get in front, Lorenzo’s side should be able to control territory, avoid cheap turnovers, and keep the match inside a 1-0 or 2-0 lane.
Clean build: Colombia to win + Under 3.5 Goals. This follows the most likely Colombia-positive script: they control the match, find enough quality through Diaz and their wide runners, but do not turn it into a shootout.
Aggressive build: Colombia to win + Diaz goal or assist + Under 3.5 Goals. This adds the player most likely to shape Colombia’s attack without needing a high-scoring game. It fits a 1-0 or 2-0 Colombia win.
Colombia projected XI (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Mina, Sanchez, Mojica; Uribe, Lerma; Arias, James Rodriguez, Diaz; Luis Suarez
DR Congo projected XI (5-3-2): Mpasi; Wan-Bissaka, Tuanzebe, Mbemba, Masuaku, Kayembe; Sadiki, Moutoussamy, Bakambu; Wissa, Elia
Lineups are projected and subject to late changes. Colombia have no major injury concerns, while DR Congo are expected to keep the compact shape that frustrated Portugal.
Score Projection: Colombia 2 - DR Congo 0
Win Probability: Colombia 58%, DR Congo 20%, Draw 22%
Colombia should have more of the ball and the stronger individual attackers, but DR Congo are not a soft underdog. They handled Portugal’s sterile possession well, defended their box with discipline, and have enough pace to make Colombia think twice before throwing numbers forward.
The pick is Under 2.5 Goals at -151. Colombia remain the likely winner, but the moneyline is slightly too short against the model. The total does a better job of capturing the matchup: Colombia control, DR Congo compete, and the favorite wins without the game becoming stretched for long periods.
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