2026 Olympic Freestyle Skiing Men's Aerials Prediction & Preview
Updated July 9, 2026
The men’s aerials competition at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games promises to be one of freestyle skiing’s most intense and unpredictable spectacles. With a field stacked with world‑class jumpers who have been trading World Cup victories this season, expectations are high for big scores and a dramatic finish. Athletes will launch themselves off steep ramps high above the landing zone at Livigno’s Aerials & Moguls Park, performing multiple flips and twists before sticking landings that can make or break their chances of an Olympic medal. Here, I break down the field and bring you my men's aerials prediction for the Winter Games.
Below are the latest outright winner odds for the men’s aerials event at the 2026 Milano‑Cortina Winter Olympics:
One of the biggest stories in men’s aerials at these Games is China’s dominance of the discipline. Multiple Chinese athletes have topped World Cup standings and claimed victories this season, making them heavy favorites in medal discussions. Guangpu Qi remains one of the most experienced aerial skiers in the world with a decorated career that includes previous Olympic medals and World Cup titles, and he enters Milano‑Cortina as the favorite to claim the gold.
Teammates Sun Jiaxu, Xindi Wang, and rising star Tianma Li have each posted powerful results on the World Cup circuit. Sun was leading the aerials World Cup standings before the Olympics, showcasing consistency and high degree of difficulty in his jumps that make him a real threat on the Olympic stage. Wang and Li have also captured World Cup wins this season, a sign of the depth of China’s aerials squad going into this marquee event.
Switzerland’s aerial team can also not be dismissed. Noe Roth and Pirmin Werner are sitting solidly in the pack just behind the favorites from China, bringing both experience and technical proficiency. Roth is the reigning World Champion, giving him recent major event success that could translate well under Olympic pressure. The Swiss often excel when precision and smooth execution trump raw difficulty, and that style can pay dividends in high‑stakes situations.
Another compelling storyline is the presence of Ukrainian athletes like Dmytro Kotovskyi and Oleksandr Okipniuk. Kotovskyi won the Lake Beauport World Cup in early January with a huge score, proving he can compete with the sport’s elite. Ukraine’s contingent could upset more fancied names if they land their biggest tricks on demand.
North Americans are represented in the list of medal contenders, including Americans Quinn Dehlinger and Christopher Lillis, along with Canada’s Miha Fontaine and Victor Primeau. While these athletes are underdogs compared to the Chinese and Swiss heavyweights, they possess the kind of explosive ability and competitiveness that sometimes sparks surprises in freestyle aerials.
Pick: Sun Jiaxu to win gold ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
Men’s aerials at the 2026 Winter Olympics should deliver breathtaking action with high stakes and huge rewards for the athletes that can execute on the big stage. Bettors should weigh not just raw odds but the current form and recent World Cup performances when considering their wagers on this event. Favoring Sun Jiaxu at his current pricing appears to be the best value relative to win probability, as he is at a better price than Quangpu Qi while having just as good a chance to claim gold.
