2026 Olympic Men's 10000m Speed Skating Prediction
Updated July 9, 2026
The men’s 10000m long‑track speed skating event at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano‑Cortina is set to play out over 25 grueling laps on the ice. The contenders bring a diverse mix of World Cup form, historical consistency, and break‑through potential to the starting line. Italy’s Davide Ghiotto arrives as the reigning world champion and local favorite, while rising challengers from Czechia, Norway, and Poland threaten to upset expectations. Before this event takes place in Italy, you will find my men's 10000m speed skating prediction below.
Below are current odds from major sportsbooks for the men’s 10000m at the 2026 Winter Games:
The longest individual race in Olympic speed skating often highlights the depth of endurance talent across nations, and this edition is no exception. One of the headlines centers on Davide Ghiotto, the Italian veteran who has dominated the 10000m in World Cups and arrives in front of a home crowd with strong recent results. He has finished near the top consistently on the World Cup circuit, including a second‑place at the Heerenveen meet just prior to the Games, and his experience and tactical savvy give him a distinct edge in championship racing conditions. Ghiotto also earned the bronze in this distance at the 2022 Winter Games, providing valuable Olympic familiarity.
A rising star in long distances is Metodej Jilek of Czechia. At just 19 years old, Jilek has quickly established himself as one of the leading skaters in the field, claiming bronze at the 2025 World Single Distances and securing multiple World Cup podiums this season. His blend of youth, poise, and rapidly improving endurance times have made him a popular choice among bettors looking for value.
Sander Eitrem of Norway is another figure drawing serious attention after a breakthrough 5000m world record earlier in the season, where he became the first man to skate under 6:00.00. While his strength has been most evident at 5000m, the translation of that endurance to the 10000m is a major storyline, and his odds reflect a credible medal threat if he can maintain blistering pace late in the race.
Italy — Davide Ghiotto: Ghiotto’s credentials are impeccable: he’s the reigning world champion in the 10000m, a podium finisher at previous Olympics, and he has the kind of championship experience that often makes the difference when medals are on the line. His odds reflect both respect for his consistency and the advantage of competing with home support.
Czech Republic — Metodej Jilek: Jilek’s rise over the past year has been meteoric by speed skating standards. Medaling at World Championships and challenging for titles on the World Cup circuit at such a young age signals potential for an Olympic breakthrough that few would have predicted a short time ago.
Norway — Sander Eitrem: Eitrem’s record‑setting performances earlier in the season have put him on the map as a true contender. Norway has long been a powerhouse in distance skating, and Eitrem’s current form suggests he could challenge the favorites if he manages his pacing across 25 laps.
Poland — Vladimir Semirunniy: Often overlooked, Semirunniy’s recent performances indicate that he could be a dangerous outsider.
Pick: Davide Ghiotto (Italy) ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
When building a betting strategy around the men’s 10000m, it’s important to weigh both recent performance data and the context of championship racing. Ghiotto’s track record this season, including a close second at a key World Cup stop, followed by a strong showing at Worlds, indicates that he thrives in high‑stakes, long-distance settings. And with Italy piling up long-track speed skating medals during this past week, I'll take the Italian to win this race as well.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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