2026 Olympic Women's Alpine Skiing Downhill Preview & Prediction
Updated July 9, 2026
The women’s downhill skiing competition at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina is one of particular interest to American sports fans. This single-run race on promises tight margins at the top, and plenty of eyes on Lindsey Vonn as she tries to overcome a torn ACL to win gold. The race takes place on the classic Tofane Alpine Skiing Centre course at Cortina d’Ampezzo, where training has already been disrupted by weather, and contenders have dealt with heavy snow and tough course conditions in limited training sessions. Before the action begins in full in Italy, you can keep reading to get my Olympic women's alpine skiing downhill prediction.
Below are the latest gold medal winner odds for the women’s downhill skiing event. Odds can fluctuate rapidly as news breaks, so bettors should double-check the odds in the lead-up to race day:
The narrative tapestry of this event is rich. On home snow, Italian star Sofia Goggia remains the favorite, buoyed by her previous Olympic success and years of proven downhill excellence. Goggia won Olympic gold in PyeongChang 2018 and silver in Beijing 2022, and she has expressed confidence and enthusiasm about racing on the Olimpia delle Tofane course in front of a partisan Italian crowd. Her familiarity with the slope’s unique features could pay dividends when it matters most.
But the biggest story by far is the return and participation of American legend Lindsey Vonn. The 41-year-old multi-time World Cup champion and former Olympic downhill gold medalist completed training runs despite suffering a complete ACL rupture just days earlier, pushing through an injury most athletes would consider too dangerous to race on. Her determination has captured global attention, and she remains formally entered and eligible to compete provided she starts a training run, which she has successfully done in the final sessions. The question will be whether Vonn can physically do enough to win gold while physically compromised.
Training conditions have been less than ideal before this race. Heavy snowfall cancelled the first scheduled downhill training, limiting opportunities for athletes to dial in at a challenging venue. Weather and course conditions have added a layer of variability to performance forecasts, and athletes who adapt quickest to the snow and course temperament on race day may gain the edge.
Another subplot involves injury absences and near-absences among top contenders. Federica Brignone of Italy, the reigning World Cup overall champion and former downhill winner, suffered a significant crash late in the season and is listed on the entry list with questions about her competitive condition. Other World Cup contenders like Kira Weidle-Winkelmann and Emma Aicher have shown solid form in downhill races throughout this season, but lack Goggia’s Olympic experience.
Pick: Sofia Goggia to win gold ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
If Lindsey Vonn was healthy and able to compete at her best in this event, she could very well have taken the gold away from Goggia. But I don't think it's wise to bet on a skier with a torn ACL, especially one at Vonn's price, when there are healthy athletes who could easily make Vonn look like an injured skier out there. I'll go with Goggia as the favorite here on home powder, as she stands to benefit the most from Vonn being banged up.
Ultimately, weather, snow conditions, and how well athletes interpret the course on race day will be critical. But Goggia’s consistency, course familiarity, and calm under pressure make her my top pick as the field races down from the start gate toward Olympic glory.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
