Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction: Mercury Aim to End Two-Game Slide
Updated July 9, 2026
The Chicago Sky head to Arizona riding early confidence after opening the season with back-to-back victories, while the Phoenix Mercury enter Friday night trying to stop a two-game slide. Phoenix remains one of the most talented veteran groups in the WNBA with Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and DeWanna Bonner leading the way, though the Mercury have struggled defensively through three games. Chicago has looked far more organized than many expected, especially on the defensive side, and will try to improve to 3-0 with a win in this Sky vs Mercury matchup.
The Chicago Sky has started the season 2-0 and already looks more disciplined defensively than last year. The Sky are allowing only 73 points per game through their first two outings and have done a solid job controlling the glass. Kamilla Cardoso has taken another step as a rebounder and interior scorer, helping to offset the loss of Angel Reese in the offseason.
Phoenix has gone 1-2 in its first three games and remains dangerous offensively, though consistency has been an issue. The Mercury were blown out by Golden State before losing a close game to Minnesota earlier this week. Phoenix still has plenty of shot creation with Copper and Thomas running the offense, but defensive breakdowns and transition issues have been costly.
Phoenix still deserves favorite status at home because of its veteran leadership and offensive ceiling. The Mercury can score in bunches, especially when Thomas is controlling play from the fringes of the paint and Copper gets downhill in transition.
Still, the betting value appears to sit with the underdog. Chicago’s defensive effort through two games has been impressive, and the Sky have a clear advantage on the glass. Cardoso should create enough second-chance opportunities to keep the score within one or two possessions deep into the fourth quarter. I'll take the 4.5 points with the Sky.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
